Ten Days Changed Wall Street as Bernanke Saw `Massive Failures'
By John Helyar, Alison Fitzgerald, Mark Pittman and Serena Saitto
Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke had been thwarted all
week in their efforts to stabilize U.S. financial markets. Now,
early in the evening of Sept. 18, they had a bigger fix in mind,
and they went to sell it to Congress.
They sat in House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's office, at a wooden
conference table adorned with pink roses and white hydrangeas,
surrounded by more than a dozen congressional leaders.
In the previous four days, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. had
gone bankrupt. Merrill Lynch & Co. and Bank of America Corp. had
rushed into a shotgun wedding. The regulators had pumped $85
billion into American International Group Inc., nationalizing the
world's biggest insurer, and were trying to thaw frozen credit
markets and prevent economic catastrophe.
Earlier that week, lawmakers of both parties had talked
about waiting until after the November election to take
legislative action. Bernanke, a scholar of the Great Depression,
let them have it.
``The credit lines in the American financial system, the
lifeblood of the economy, are completely frozen,'' he said,
according to Senator Charles Schumer of New York, a Democrat who
was in the meeting. Banks had stopped lending to each other
overnight, Bernanke said.
That threatened to halt all lending in the U.S., forcing
businesses to close and idling workers, the Fed chief said. The
Fed also was seeing money being moved out of the country.
``You could have massive failures within days,'' he told the
group, and it would go beyond the banking system to ``large name-
brand companies,'' according to a congressional staff member who
attended the meeting and took notes.
Sobering Meeting
Politicians leaving the meeting said they were shocked at
these portents of Armageddon from the usually understated
Bernanke. They left the 90-minute meeting looking shaken, and
resolved to act before the election.
It was ``as sobering a meeting as any of us have ever
attended in our careers here,'' said Christopher Dodd, a
Connecticut Democrat and chairman of the Senate Banking
Committee.
Thus culminated 10 days that rattled markets worldwide and
changed the structure of the U.S. financial system. Wall Street
firms are shuttering or selling themselves to the most stable
bidders. Regulators and lawmakers are moving toward a rescue that
could cost more than $700 billion and permanently step up
regulation.
`House of Cards'
President George W. Bush said as much in public remarks
Sept. 20.
``At first, I thought we could deal with the problem one
issue at a time,'' Bush said. ``The house of cards was much
bigger and started to stretch beyond Wall Street. When one card
started to go, we worried about the whole deck going down.''
The storm in the markets began with a long-deferred nod to
reality by Lehman. The 158-year-old, New York-based firm had
possible acquirers inspecting its books.
They discovered that Lehman hadn't yet written down its
portfolio of subprime mortgages, those issued to the least
creditworthy borrowers, as aggressively as some other Wall Street
firms. Merrill Lynch, for instance, had reduced the value of its
subprime paper to 22 cents on the dollar.
Ratings companies began to look under the hood at Lehman.
They had been chastised by the Securities and Exchange Commission
for issuing top, AAA grades to securities backed by subprime
mortgages.
AIG Collateral Damage
When Standard & Poor's downgraded Lehman's credit rating on
Tuesday, Sept. 9, its stock plummeted 45 percent to $7.79, the
lowest in 11 years. The next day, Lehman reported the biggest
quarterly loss in company history, $3.9 billion, and said it
would restructure and sell a majority stake in its asset-
management unit. The firm's stock plunged 46 percent more in the
next two days.
The most immediate collateral damage was suffered by AIG. It
was still valuing its subprime holdings higher than firms that
had taken bigger writedowns, and investors turned on the company.
On Thursday, Sept. 11, AIG Chief Executive Officer Robert
Willumstad took his own stab at a restructuring plan, saying the
company would sell subsidiaries. The cost of insuring AIG debt
rose 42 percent that day and 29 percent more the next.
Demands for Premium
Other companies were demanding an increased premium to do
business with AIG, and investors were dumping AIG stock. Its
shares declined 31 percent Sept. 12, when Standard & Poor's said
it might cut AIG's credit rating.
After the close of business that day, the last chapter of
Lehman as an independent entity began to be written. New York
Federal Reserve Bank President Timothy Geithner summoned Wall
Street leaders and Lehman executives to a meeting at his quarters
in the financial district.
At 6 p.m., in a conference room there, he and Paulson got to
the point quickly. Lehman wouldn't get the same treatment as Bear
Stearns Cos. In March, the regulators had committed $30 billion
to support the acquisition of Bear Stearns by JPMorgan Chase &
Co. Now the bailout window was closed.
``The situation in March and the situation and facts around
Bear Stearns were very, very different with what we were looking
at in September,'' Paulson said Sept. 15.
Wall Street Executives
Paulson, a former chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs
Group Inc., looked around the table. Lloyd Blankfein, his
successor at Goldman; Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer of
JPMorgan; John Mack, CEO of Morgan Stanley; John Thain, CEO of
Merrill Lynch; and other top executives looked back.
If Lehman were to survive in some form, Paulson said, it was
their responsibility. Certainly liquidating the fourth-biggest
U.S. investment bank wouldn't be good for them. Volatility could
unnerve investors so much that they might flee other investment
banks.
``You have a responsibility to the marketplace,'' he said.
The Wall Street executives agreed to spend the weekend
working on plans to carve up Lehman. The problem was that they
also had to consider the interests of their own besieged firms.
On Saturday, Sept. 13, Merrill's Thain placed a call to
Kenneth Lewis, chief executive officer of Bank of America. For
several days, Lewis's bank had its foot firmly on Merrill's
windpipe. Thain later told Merrill employees, in explaining his
decision to sell, that Bank of America had ``cut our trading
lines.''
Stock Plunge
Merrill managed to restore its credit lines but, like
Lehman, was vulnerable. The nation's biggest brokerage had taken
$52.2 billion of losses on subprime securities. Its stock had
declined 36 percent the previous week, to $17.05, the lowest
since 1996. When Lewis made an offer of $29 a share, or $50
billion, Thain took it.
Lehman's employees, meanwhile, were first to sense their
firm's demise. Plenty of them spent the weekend in favored
watering holes like Bobby Van's on West 50th Street, an
unofficial office annex.
They weren't just packing bars; they were packing up office
possessions. Employees began streaming into the firm's midtown
headquarters the afternoon of Sunday, Sept. 14, after hearing
news reports that Bank of America had been discussing a Merrill
acquisition and wouldn't want both companies.
Some Lehman staff had been drinking since the market's close
the previous Friday, knowing that the stock's 77 percent drop in
the past week signaled its demise as an independent company. A
group of them broke out champagne on the trading floor that
afternoon -- not to celebrate but to mourn.
Together for News
That Sunday evening, about 70 Lehman staffers decided to
move their wake about 40 blocks south, to a cavernous, glass-
walled bar called Forum. They were still drinking at 2 a.m. when
Bloomberg Television flashed the news: Lehman had filed for
bankruptcy protection.
On Sept. 15, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 504
points, or 4.4 percent, the biggest one-day decline since trading
resumed after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks seven years earlier.
At 6:31 p.m., Fitch Ratings announced that it had downgraded
AIG's main credit line to A from AA-. Moody's Investors Service
and S&P followed within three hours.
The next day, the company's stock plunged 34 percent and its
leaders began casting about for liquidity. Because of the
downgrades, AIG had to immediately come up with $20 billion as
collateral against subprime paper it had insured.
Record Bankruptcy
The world's biggest insurer was abruptly a candidate for the
world's biggest bankruptcy, dwarfing that of Lehman.
When the values of insured securities fall, the insurer must
deliver cash representing the difference between their original
and current value. Of the $58 billion in contracts that AIG had
written, 64 percent of the insured instruments had been
downgraded and six were in default.
If AIG failed, the effects would ripple through the world
financial system and damage Wall Street firms.
The regulators stepped in on the evening of Tuesday, Sept.
16, with an $85 billion loan to AIG, in exchange for an 80
percent stake. The action averted bankruptcy and, with the first
$30 billion loan installment from the New York Fed, enabled the
company to meet its collateral calls from customers including
Goldman.
``The banks are the recipients of the Fed's largesse,'' said
Christopher Whalen, managing director at Institutional Risk
Analytics in Hawthorne, California, which compiles a database of
bank transactions.
The action failed to stabilize the market. Stocks continued
to fall the next day as the Dow lost 4.7 percent. Over three
days, $3.6 trillion of market value was erased.
Libor's Jump
The meltdown reached banks on Tuesday, Sept. 16, when the
London interbank offered rate jumped 3.33 percentage points to
6.44 percent. This signaled that banks didn't trust each other
enough to make 24-hour loans -- except at a premium -- and
overnight more than doubled the cost of borrowing in dollars. The
rate was the highest since 2001.
The fear gripping the market gridlocked the financial
system, including collateralized debt obligations.
``There's so much fear about the system issues engulfing the
market that you can't really blame your counterparts for dotting
every `I' and crossing every `T,''' said Thomas Priore, chief
executive officer of Institutional Credit Partners LLC, a New
York-based fixed-income advisory and investment firm.
After the market closed Tuesday, there was another eruption.
A money-market concern called Reserve Primary Fund said its net
asset value had fallen below $1. That's because it had taken
losses of $785 million on its holdings of Lehman commercial
paper, the fund told shareholders. For every dollar, a Reserve
customer could redeem 97 cents.
Critic Snared
The fund was run by Bruce Bent, who created the first money-
market fund 38 years ago and had been a critic of investing in
mortgage-based instruments.
``Wall Street -- they don't have any brains -- all they do
is market,'' Bent said in a July interview. ``They say, `If
you're willing to buy it, I'm willing to sell it to you. If
you're going to go out and blow up a bridge with it, that's none
of my business. I just sell dynamite.'''
Now Bent's fund was caught in the Wall Street vortex and
triggered a run on other money-market funds, which investors had
considered as safe as cash. Account holders withdrew a record
$89.2 billion on Sept. 17, according to the newsletter Money Fund
Report.
Shock to Market
``This shocked our market more than anything else,'' said
Deborah Cunningham, chief investment officer for $241.4 billion
in Federated Investors Inc. money-market funds.
She had sensed that something like this might be coming a
week earlier, Cunningham said in an interview, when Money Fund
Report said investors pulled $80.7 billion from taxable money-
market funds in the previous week.
During the weekend, in her Pittsburgh office overlooking
center field in PNC Park's baseball stadium, she deliberated on
how to calm investors' worries about the still-unresolved Lehman
situation and the rest of the market.
``We didn't think Lehman was going to survive over the
weekend in its then-form,'' said Cunningham. ``That's why we had
everybody tuned into their BlackBerrys and news sources.''
Even when Cunningham wasn't at the office -- watching the
Pennsylvania State University Nittany Lions football team beat
Syracuse University, 55-13, on Saturday night, or attending her
daughter's cheerleading competition Sunday night -- she was
preoccupied.
``My mind wasn't really on these things,'' she said.
Merrill Debt
While Federated didn't have any Lehman notes, the firm was
invested in Merrill Lynch debt. She declined to say how much. The
fund manager had to prepare for an onslaught of questions and the
possibility of redemptions because of that holding.
Cunningham said she thought she had good answers. Merrill's
risk was mitigated by its pending merger into Bank of America.
Yet it was still a challenge to calm customers and retain their
funds, she said.
After the Reserve announcement, Cunningham said, ``it's
been 24 hours a day, all hands on deck, nobody gets to go home.''
The market's plunge scared even seasoned pros like Laurence
Fink, chief executive officer of the New York-based asset-
management firm BlackRock Inc.
``We allowed leverage to reach obscene levels,'' said Fink,
a pioneer in mortgage-backed securities. ``We allowed the
securitization of assets that historically were never allowed to
be part of the securitization package. So now we're paying the
costs of all those excesses.''
Rally on `Solution'
At about 2 p.m. on Thursday, Sept. 18, New York Democrat
Schumer was in the Senate. The Dow had dropped as much as 962
points, or 8 percent, since the previous Friday. Schumer, who
sits on the finance and banking committees, told reporters that
the Fed and Treasury were planning a ``comprehensive solution''
to the financial crisis.
That sparked a rally in the market. The Dow closed up 410
points, or 3.9 percent.
Representative Pelosi, the California Democrat, had called
Paulson for an update. By 3:30 p.m., they agreed on a briefing
for lawmakers and Paulson was personally calling congressional
leaders and asking them to attend.
After the briefing that evening, Paulson promised he would
get a proposal to legislators as soon as possible. On Saturday
morning, Sept. 21, a three-page bill was delivered to members of
Congress asking them to give Paulson unchecked power to buy $700
billion in bad mortgage investments from financial companies in
what would be an unprecedented government intrusion into the
markets.
More Debt
The plan would raise the ceiling on the national debt and
spend as much as the combined annual budgets of the Departments
of Defense, Education, and Health and Human Services. Paulson was
asking for the power to hire asset managers and award contracts
to private companies. Most provisions would expire after two
years from the date of enactment.
As details of the Paulson-proposed package emerge, so do
concerns that the $700 billion cure may prove worse than the
disease, virulent as it has been. Reregulation of Wall Street is
one thing, critics say, while redefining capitalism another.
``The recent intervention in the markets, nationalization of
financial services companies and systemwide RTC-like bailout
being crafted in Washington are disconcerting to say the least,''
said Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New
York. ``Unfortunately, there's not much choice.''
The two-day rally that began with Schumer's speech left the
market on Friday, Sept. 19, about even with its close a week
earlier.
The Dow started the week at 11,422 and finished at 11,388,
and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index began at 1,252 and closed at
1,255.
If you were off on Mars for the week, you might think
nothing had changed.
To contact the reporters on this story:
John Helyar in Atlanta at jhelyar@bloomberg.net;
Alison Fitzgerald in Washingtont ;
Mark Pittman in New York at
mpittman@bloomberg.net;
Serena Saitto in New York at
ssaitto@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: September 22, 2008 03:19 EDT