Credit-Default Swaps on Italy, Spain Are Most Traded (Update1)
By Shannon D. Harrington and Abigail Moses
Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Credit-default swap traders wagered
the most on debt of Italy, Spain and Deutsche Bank AG, according
to a Depository Trust & Clearing Corp. report that gives the
broadest data yet on the unregulated market.
A total $33.6 trillion of transactions are outstanding on
governments, companies and asset-backed securities worldwide,
based on gross numbers, the DTCC said in the report released on
its Web site yesterday. After canceling out overlapping trades,
investors have taken out a net $22.7 billion of contracts based
on Italy's debt, $16.7 billion against Spain and $12.5 billion on
Deutsche Bank of Frankfurt, the report shows.
``The bigger the outstanding amount of debt, the bigger the
volume of credit-default swaps,'' said Philip Gisdakis, a Munich-
based credit analyst at UniCredit SpA. ``Sovereigns have huge
debt outstanding. Deutsche Bank has a huge balance sheet, so it's
quite understandable it's at the top of the list.''
The DTCC, which operates a central registry of credit-
default swap trades, released the data after U.S. authorities
blamed the unregulated market for exacerbating the credit crisis
that led to almost $690 billion in bank losses and writedowns.
The level of credit-default swaps reported by DTCC is
smaller than previous estimates. The Bank for International
Settlements estimated contracts of $57.9 trillion outstanding in
May. DTCC's data may calm concerns that investors and dealers
have too much at risk, said Brian Yelvington, a New York-based
strategist at fixed-income research firm CreditSights Inc.
`Right Direction'
``Far too much mistrust has been engendered by the lack of
transparency,'' Yelvington said. ``There's still a lot here
that's not captured. But it's a step in the right direction.''
Trading in credit-default swaps, which pay the buyer face
value in exchange for the underlying securities should a borrower
fail to adhere to its debt agreements, exploded 100-fold during
the past decade.
The credit-default swaps market has moved beyond its origins
of protecting banks from loan losses to a way for hedge funds,
insurance companies and asset managers to speculate on the
creditworthiness of companies, governments and other borrowers,
including homeowners. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett has
called credit-default swaps a ``time bomb.''
The collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. contributed to
a decline in financial markets last month because no one knew how
many credit-default swap contracts were outstanding on the
securities firm, how many the company had written or who held
them. They are private contracts between two parties, don't trade
on an exchange and aren't processed through a central
clearinghouse, making it virtually impossible for the public to
asses the amount wagered on the debt. Estimates ranged as high as
$400 billion, though the actual amount turned out to be $72
billion, the DTCC said.
Trading Data
After subtracting redundant trades, only $5.2 billion of
trades actually changed hands, DTCC said last month, the first
time it had released such information from its data warehouse.
Dealers have been trying to reduce the number of contracts
outstanding by tearing up overlapping trades, helping reduce the
net number of transactions and allaying concerns that the market
was too large. The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank
are pushing dealers to create a clearinghouse to act as a
counterparty on each trade, eliminating the risk of one side
defaulting.
The DTCC, which is controlled by a board of members
including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.,
doesn't list contracts on all companies, governments and other
securities beyond the top 1,000 in the registry, on which there
are a net of $183.3 billion. And there's not a clear accounting
of what may exist beyond the registry.
Spain, Italy
Investors have focused wagers on debt of industries and
countries that may be most affected by a credit crisis entering
its 15th month. The Spanish economy is headed toward its first
recession in 15 years amid a slump in its housing market and
banking and finance shares have dropped as the credit seizure
caused some to collapse.
Credit-default swaps on Italy were quoted at 107.5 basis
points today, CMA Datavision prices on 10-year contracts show,
after reaching a record 138 basis points on Oct. 24. The
contracts have more than doubled since August. Today's price
represents a cost of $107,500 a year to protect $10 million of
debt for 10 years.
Contracts on Spain climbed to 112 basis points on Oct. 24,
from about 47 basis points at the start of September. They have
since dropped back to 78.5 basis points.
The ECB met with regulators, lenders and investors this week
to discuss ways of increasing transparency in the default swaps
market on its side of the Atlantic. A central counterparty is an
``appropriate solution'' for reducing risk, the ECB said in a
statement. Auctions this week are meantime settling default swaps
on debt of Iceland's three biggest banks.
GE Capital, Merrill
In total, about $15.4 trillion of transactions were linked
to individual corporate, sovereign and asset-backed bonds
worldwide at the end of October, the DTCC data showed. About
$14.8 trillion was tied to indexes.
Among companies, GE Capital Corp., the finance arm of
General Electric Co., New York-based Morgan Stanley, Merrill
Lynch & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. had the biggest dollar
amount of contracts tied to their debt on a net basis, after
Deutsche Bank, Germany's biggest lender, DTCC said. New York-
based Merrill agreed in September to sell itself to Bank of
America Corp.
The net figures are the maximum that sellers would have to
pay to buyers if the borrowers defaulted, DTCC said.
Netting Trades
Turkey, Italy, Brazil, Russia, GMAC LLC, and Merrill Lynch &
Co. had the biggest gross amount of contracts outstanding on
their debt as of Oct. 31. Turkey alone had $188.6 billion of
default swaps written against its debt. The gross amount doesn't
take into account offsetting trades. After netting the trades,
there were $7.6 billion outstanding on Turkey.
The industry should ``get the word out about the small size
of these risks compared to the notional amounts on which the
contracts are based,'' said Mark Brickell, chief executive
officer of Blackbird Holdings Inc., which provides an electronic
trading system for derivatives, and former chairman of the
International Swaps and Derivatives Association.
Criticism of the market intensified in September after the
collapse of Lehman and the U.S. government's bailout of American
International Group Inc., which faced bankruptcy after credit-
rating downgrades forced it to post more than $10 billion in
collateral on credit swap trades that had plunged in value.
Cox on Disclosure
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman
Christopher Cox called for authority to regulate the credit
swaps market, saying the lack of disclosure and the web of
connections between dealers in the market threatened the
stability of the financial system. The Federal Reserve Bank of
New York, which has spent the last three years pushing dealers to
curb risks in the credit swaps market, last week said it welcomed
the DTCC's disclosure.
``Publishing this data will provide greater transparency in
a critical market,'' Tim Ryan, head of the Securities Industry
and Financial Markets Association, said in a statement today.
``This is an important initiative upon which the industry will
continue to build.''
To contact the reporters on this story:
Shannon D. Harrington in New York at
sharrington6@bloomberg.net;
Abigail Moses in London
Amoses5@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: November 5, 2008 06:31 EST