U.S. Pledges Top $7.7 Trillion to Ease Frozen Credit (Update2)
By Mark Pittman and Bob Ivry
Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. government is prepared to
provide more than $7.76 trillion on behalf of American taxpayers
after guaranteeing $306 billion of Citigroup Inc. debt yesterday.
The pledges, amounting to half the value of everything produced
in the nation last year, are intended to rescue the financial
system after the credit markets seized up 15 months ago.
The unprecedented pledge of funds includes $3.18 trillion
already tapped by financial institutions in the biggest response
to an economic emergency since the New Deal of the 1930s,
according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The commitment dwarfs
the plan approved by lawmakers, the Treasury Department’s $700
billion Troubled Asset Relief Program. Federal Reserve lending
last week was 1,900 times the weekly average for the three years
before the crisis.
When Congress approved the TARP on Oct. 3, Fed Chairman Ben
S. Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson acknowledged the
need for transparency and oversight. Now, as regulators commit
far more money while refusing to disclose loan recipients or
reveal the collateral they are taking in return, some Congress
members are calling for the Fed to be reined in.
“Whether it’s lending or spending, it’s tax dollars that
are going out the window and we end up holding collateral we
don’t know anything about,” said Congressman Scott Garrett, a
New Jersey Republican who serves on the House Financial Services
Committee. “The time has come that we consider what sort of
limitations we should be placing on the Fed so that authority
returns to elected officials as opposed to appointed ones.”
Too Big to Fail
Bloomberg News tabulated data from the Fed, Treasury and
Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and interviewed regulatory
officials, economists and academic researchers to gauge the full
extent of the government’s rescue effort.
The bailout includes a Fed program to buy as much as $2.4
trillion in short-term notes, called commercial paper, that
companies use to pay bills, begun Oct. 27, and $1.4 trillion from
the FDIC to guarantee bank-to-bank loans, started Oct. 14.
William Poole, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank
of St. Louis, said the two programs are unlikely to lose money.
The bigger risk comes from rescuing companies perceived as “too
big to fail,” he said.
‘Credit Risk’
The government committed $29 billion to help engineer the
takeover in March of Bear Stearns Cos. by New York-based JPMorgan
Chase & Co. and $122.8 billion in addition to TARP allocations to
bail out New York-based American International Group Inc., once
the world’s largest insurer.
Citigroup received $306 billion of government guarantees for
troubled mortgages and toxic assets. The Treasury Department also
will inject $20 billion into the bank after its stock fell 60
percent last week.
“No question there is some credit risk there,” Poole said.
Congressman Darrell Issa, a California Republican on the
Oversight and Government Reform Committee, said risk is lurking
in the programs that Poole thinks are safe.
“The thing that people don’t understand is it’s not how
likely that the exposure becomes a reality, but what if it
does?” Issa said. “There’s no transparency to it so who’s to
say they’re right?”
The worst financial crisis in two generations has erased $23
trillion, or 38 percent, of the value of the world’s companies
and brought down three of the biggest Wall Street firms.
Markets Down
The Dow Jones Industrial Average through Friday is down 38
percent since the beginning of the year and 43 percent from its
peak on Oct. 9, 2007. The S&P 500 fell 45 percent from the
beginning of the year through Friday and 49 percent from its peak
on Oct. 9, 2007. The Nikkei 225 Index has fallen 46 percent from
the beginning of the year through Friday and 57 percent from its
most recent peak of 18,261.98 on July 9, 2007. Goldman Sachs
Group Inc. is down 78 percent, to $53.31, on Friday from its peak
of $247.92 on Oct. 31, 2007, and 75 percent this year.
Regulators hope the rescue will contain the damage and keep
banks providing the credit that is the lifeblood of the U.S.
economy.
Most of the spending programs are run out of the New York
Fed, whose president, Timothy Geithner, is said to be President-
elect Barack Obama’s choice to be Treasury Secretary.
‘They Got Snookered’
The money that’s been pledged is equivalent to $24,000 for
every man, woman and child in the country. It’s nine times what
the U.S. has spent so far on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan,
according to Congressional Budget Office figures. It could pay
off more than half the country’s mortgages.
“It’s unprecedented,” said Bob Eisenbeis, chief monetary
economist at Vineland, New Jersey-based Cumberland Advisors Inc.
and an economist for the Atlanta Fed for 10 years until January.
“The backlash has begun already. Congress is taking a lot of
hits from their constituents because they got snookered on the
TARP big time. There’s a lot of supposedly smart people who look
to be totally incompetent and it’s all going to fall on the
taxpayer.”
President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal of the 1930s,
when almost 10,000 banks failed and there was no mechanism to
bolster them with cash, is the only rival to the government’s
current response. The savings and loan bailout of the 1990s cost
$209.5 billion in inflation-adjusted numbers, of which $173
billion came from taxpayers, according to a July 1996 report by
the U.S. General Accounting Office, now called the Government
Accountability Office.
‘Worst Crisis’
The 1979 U.S. government bailout of Chrysler consisted of
bond guarantees, adjusted for inflation, of $4.2 billion,
according to a Heritage Foundation report.
The commitment of public money is appropriate to the peril,
said Ethan Harris, co-head of U.S. economic research at Barclays
Capital Inc. and a former economist at the New York Fed. U.S.
financial firms have taken writedowns and losses of $666.1
billion since the beginning of 2007, according to Bloomberg data.
“This is the worst capital markets crisis in modern
history,” Harris said. “So you have the biggest intervention in
modern history.”
Bloomberg has requested details of Fed lending under the
U.S. Freedom of Information Act and filed a federal lawsuit
against the central bank Nov. 7 seeking to force disclosure of
borrower banks and their collateral.
Collateral is an asset pledged to a lender in the event a
loan payment isn’t made.
‘That’s Counterproductive’
“Some have asked us to reveal the names of the banks that
are borrowing, how much they are borrowing, what collateral they
are posting,” Bernanke said Nov. 18 to the House Financial
Services Committee. “We think that’s counterproductive.”
The Fed should account for the collateral it takes in
exchange for loans to banks, said Paul Kasriel, chief economist
at Chicago-based Northern Trust Corp. and a former research
economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
“There is a lack of transparency here and, given that the
Fed is taking on a huge amount of credit risk now, it would seem
to me as a taxpayer there should be more transparency,” Kasriel
said.
Bernanke’s Fed is responsible for $4.74 trillion of pledges,
or 61 percent of the total commitment of $7.76 trillion, based on
data compiled by Bloomberg concerning U.S. bailout steps started
a year ago.
“Too often the public is focused on the wrong piece of that
number, the $700 billion that Congress approved,” said J.D.
Foster, a former staff member of the Council of Economic Advisers
who is now a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation in
Washington. “The other areas are quite a bit larger.”
Fed Rescue Efforts
The Fed’s rescue attempts began last December with the
creation of the Term Auction Facility to allow lending to dealers
for collateral. After Bear Stearns’s collapse in March, the
central bank started making direct loans to securities firms at
the same discount rate it charges commercial banks, which take
customer deposits.
In the three years before the crisis, such average weekly
borrowing by banks was $48 million, according to the central
bank. Last week it was $91.5 billion.
The failure of a second securities firm, Lehman Brothers
Holdings Inc., in September, led to the creation of the
Commercial Paper Funding Facility and the Money Market Investor
Funding Facility, or MMIFF. The two programs, which have pledged
$2.3 trillion, are designed to restore calm in the money markets,
which deal in certificates of deposit, commercial paper and
Treasury bills.
Lehman Failure
“Money markets seized up after Lehman failed,” said Neal
Soss, chief economist at Credit Suisse Group in New York and a
former aide to Fed chief Paul Volcker. “Lehman failing made a
lot of subsequent actions necessary.”
The FDIC, chaired by Sheila Bair, is contributing 20 percent
of total rescue commitments. The FDIC’s $1.4 trillion in
guarantees will amount to a bank subsidy of as much as $54
billion over three years, or $18 billion a year, because
borrowers will pay a lower interest rate than they would on the
open market, according to Raghu Sundurum and Viral Acharya of New
York University and the London Business School.
Congress and the Treasury have ponied up $892 billion in
TARP and other funding, or 11.5 percent.
The Federal Housing Administration, overseen by Department
of Housing and Urban Development Secretary Steven Preston, was
given the authority to guarantee $300 billion of mortgages, or
about 4 percent of the total commitment, with its Hope for
Homeowners program, designed to keep distressed borrowers from
foreclosure.
Federal Guarantees
Most of the federal guarantees reduce interest rates on loans
to banks and securities firms, which would create a subsidy of at
least $6.6 billion annually for the financial industry, according
to data compiled by Bloomberg comparing rates charged by the Fed
against market interest currently paid by banks.
Not included in the calculation of pledged funds is an FDIC
proposal to prevent foreclosures by guaranteeing modifications on
$444 billion in mortgages at an expected cost of $24.4 billion to
be paid from the TARP, according to FDIC spokesman David Barr.
The Treasury Department hasn’t approved the program.
Bernanke and Paulson, former chief executive officer of
Goldman Sachs, have also promised as much as $200 billion to
shore up nationalized mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and
Freddie Mac, a pledge that hasn’t been allocated to any agency.
The FDIC arranged for $139 billion in loan guarantees for General
Electric Co.’s finance unit.
Automakers Struggle
The tally doesn’t include money to General Motors Corp.,
Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC. Obama has said he favors
financial assistance to keep them from collapse.
Paulson told the House Financial Services Committee Nov. 18
that the $250 billion already allocated to banks through the TARP
is an investment, not an expenditure.
“I think it would be extraordinarily unusual if the
government did not get that money back and more,” Paulson said.
In his Nov. 18 testimony, Bernanke told the House Financial
Services Committee that the central bank wouldn’t lose money.
“We take collateral, we haircut it, it is a short-term
loan, it is very safe, we have never lost a penny in these
various lending programs,” he said.
A haircut refers to the practice of lending less money than
the collateral’s current market value.
Requiring the Fed to disclose loan recipients might set off
panic, said David Tobin, principal of New York-based loan-sale
consultants and investment bank Mission Capital Advisors LLC.
‘Mark to Market’
“If you mark to market today, the banking system is
bankrupt,” Tobin said. “So what do you do? You try to keep it
going as best you can.”
“Mark to market” means adjusting the value of an asset,
such as a mortgage-backed security, to reflect current prices.
Some of the bailout assistance could come from tax breaks in
the future. The Treasury Department changed the tax code on Sept.
30 to allow banks to expand the deductions on the losses banks
they were buying, according to Robert Willens, a former Lehman
Brothers tax and accounting analyst who teaches at Columbia
University Business School in New York.
Wells Fargo & Co., which is buying Charlotte, North
Carolina-based Wachovia Corp., will be able to deduct $22
billion, Willens said. Adding in other banks, the code change
will cost $29 billion, he said.
“The rule is now popularly known among tax lawyers as the
‘Wells Fargo Notice,’” Willens said.
The regulation was changed to make it easier for healthy
banks to buy troubled ones, said Treasury Department spokesman
Andrew DeSouza.
House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank
said he was angry that banks used the money for acquisitions.
“The only purpose for this money is to lend,” said Frank,
a Massachusetts Democrat. “It’s not for dividends, it’s not for
purchases of new banks, it’s not for bonuses. There better be a
showing of increased lending roughly in the amount of the capital
infusions” or Congress may not approve the second half of the
TARP money.
To contact the reporters on this story:
Mark Pittman in New York at
mpittman@bloomberg.net;
Bob Ivry in New York at bivry@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: November 24, 2008 13:26 EST