Sentance Says He's `Struck' by U.K. Inflation Jump (Update1)
By Svenja O'Donnell and Brian Swint
July 17 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of England policy maker Andrew
Sentance said he's been ``particularly struck'' by the jump in
inflation, which risks stoking price expectations, and he
considered voting for higher interest rates last month.
``I have been particularly struck by the speed with which
inflation has moved to somewhere that is significantly above
target,'' said Sentance in an interview in his office in London
today. ``There are clear risks to inflation expectations in this
environment.''
Sentance, 49, and the Bank of England's eight other rate-
setters are fighting the U.K.'s worst bout of inflation in more
than a decade while trying to keep the economy clear of a
recession. The former British Airways Plc chief economist
indicated that for now, the inflation outlook is changing more
quickly than the one for growth.
``It's not clear that the slowdown in the economy that has
emerged so far is significantly sharper than we were projecting in
the May inflation report,'' Sentance said. ``We may have to accept
that the economy slows further, that we've got a few more
difficult quarters in the real economy'' to get inflation back to
the central bank's 2 percent target.
Inflation Jump
Inflation accelerated to 3.8 percent in June, the fastest
pace in at least 11 years, spurred by higher energy and food
costs, the Office for National Statistics said on July 15.
Investors added to bets for higher interest rates after
Sentance's comments. The implied yield on the rate futures
contract for December rose 3 basis points to 5.89 percent as of
5:02 p.m. in London.
``The Monetary Policy Committee's chief hawk is doing what
hawks do,'' Alan Clarke, an economist at BNP Paribas SA in London,
wrote in a note to investors. Sentance's view ``highlights that it
is too soon to rule out a rate hike in the U.K.''
Policy makers kept the U.K. benchmark interest rate unchanged
at 5 percent for a third month on July 10. Minutes showing how
Sentance and the other policy makers voted at that meeting will be
released on July 23. The Monetary Policy Committee's next decision
is on August 7.
Sentance said he considered seeking a rate increase at the
June meeting. At least four others told lawmakers last month that
they had also looked at the case for higher interest rates. At
that meeting, the panel voted 8-1 for no change, defeating David
Blanchflower's call for a cut.
`Upward Pressure'
``We're facing quite considerable upward pressure on
inflation and the traditional response would be: `Well, do we need
a policy tightening?''' Sentance said, referring to his decision
on how to vote in June. ```And if we need to tighten policy,
should we be doing it sooner rather than later?'''
Faster price increases and the worst housing-market slump
since the last recession have eroded consumers' living standards
and helped push support for Prime Minister Gordon Brown's ruling
Labour Party close to the lowest since World War II.
Economic growth will slow to a 1 percent annual pace in the
first quarter of 2009, the weakest since 1992, the Bank of England
predicted in its May 14 inflation report. Economic growth Central
bank Governor Mervyn King said then that there may be ``an odd
quarter or two of negative growth.''
Sentance said today that a recession isn't the bank's
``central forecast.'' It will be ``very difficult'' to avoid a
significant slowdown in the economy, he said.
Growth Forecast
Economic growth of about 1.3 percent for 2009 is a
``reasonable summary of my assessment at the moment,'' Sentance
said. ``But to get the full assessment, you'll have to wait for
the next inflation report'' with the bank's economic forecasts on
August 13, he said.
The inflation rate has exceeded the central bank's 2 percent
target for nine months, and breached the government's 3 percent
limit in June for only the third time since the Bank of England's
independence more than a decade ago.
``Inflation is rising in the short term. We need to get on
top of that,'' Sentance said. ``A slowing economy is part of that
process because if the economy wasn't slowing there would be
increased inflation risks. The balance of risks has shifted quite
a bit over the past few months and may indeed continue to shift.''
Since Sentance joined the committee in October 2006, he and
Timothy Besley have both made more votes than anyone else to raise
the benchmark interest rate. In 21 meetings before the July
decision, Sentance voted eight times for a rate increase, 11 times
for no change and twice for a cut.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Svenja O'Donnell in London at
sodonnell@bloomberg.net;
Brian Swint in London at
bswint@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: July 17, 2008 12:21 EDT