PrintPrint
Stocks Are Hurting More Than the Averages Show: John Dorfman

Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- If you are finding this quarter in the stock market unpleasant, you're not alone. A look behind the market averages will show the damage has been worse than you might suspect.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index is down 3.15 percent for the quarter, which doesn't sound too bad. Yet only one of the 500 stocks in the index was up as much as 15 percent through Tuesday, while 71 stocks were down that much or more.

The Nasdaq Composite Index is down 9.14 percent since June 30, which is no picnic. Even that figure, however, soft-peddles the damage. Among Nasdaq stocks with a market value more than $500 million, 263 are down 10 percent or more through Tuesday. Only 36 are up that much.

The indexes are holding up better than the average stock because a few large stocks are propping the indexes up. This is possible because both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are market-cap weighted; that is, large stocks have greater weight.

In the S&P 500, the top five stocks -- General Electric Co. (GE), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), Pfizer Inc. (PFE) and Citigroup Inc. (C) -- make up close to 14 percent of the index's value.

Goodyear Is Back

So far this quarter, Exxon Mobil is up 1 percent (or 1.6 percent if you take its dividend into account), and General Electric is up 0.7 percent. Citigroup is down 0.4 percent. Microsoft is down 4.3 percent and Pfizer 7.5 percent. Nothing there is too bad, although Pfizer holders may be feeling a bit blue.

Here are some thoughts on a few stocks that have stood out for better or worse this quarter. We'll start with a couple of gainers.

Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (GT), with a 17 percent gain this quarter through Tuesday, has been the best performer in the S&P 500. On Aug. 5, Goodyear announced that it had posted a profit in the second quarter, its first quarterly profit in almost two years.

Goodyear also posted record quarterly revenue of $4.5 billion. The company has raised tire prices and cut costs. It has closed plants in Alabama, Georgia and Guatemala and eliminated 6,000 jobs.

Verizon

It's nice to see Goodyear back in the black, but I can't get too enthusiastic about the stock. After all, this company posted losses in each of the past three years -- $203 million in 2001, $1.2 billion in 2002, and $802 million in 2003. That, mind you, was in a time when interest rates were low and the economy wasn't in a recession.

Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) is the best performer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average this quarter through Tuesday, up 8.6 percent. The announcement by AT&T Corp. (T) that it's retreating from the residential phone business has helped the stocks of AT&T's competitors. Investors anticipate market-share gains for the survivors and an abatement of recent price wars.

Verizon stock sells for 16 times earnings, a bit below the six-year average for this stock, which is 18.5. It has a nice dividend yield, 3.9 percent. Overall I think Verizon is a decent stock to own. Yet I wouldn't put too much money into it because of competition from new forms of phone service involving Internet voice transmission.

Some Losers

Now let's turn to a few of the losers.

Intel Corp. (INTC), the world's biggest maker of computer chips, has suffered the most of the 30 Dow stocks, down 21 percent. Monday, Intel cut the prices of some processors by as much as 35 percent.

Intel shares fetched as much as $74.88 at their peak four years ago and today sell for $21.95. I would not bargain-hunt quite yet, as the stock still sells for 4.3 times revenue, 3.7 times book value (assets minus liabilities per share) and 19 times earnings.

Ciena Corp. (CIEN), based in Linthicum, Maryland, makes optical networking equipment. It's the worst performer in the S&P for the quarter-to-date through Tuesday, down 47 percent.

Ciena lost $1.8 billion in 2001, $1.5 billion in 2002 and $386 million in 2003. Even after those losses, the balance sheet seems to be in decent shape, with debt equal to 42 percent of stockholders' equity.

Delta Air Lines

The stock peaked at $149.50 in 2000 and yesterday languished at $1.98. That's less than book value, making Ciena intriguing as a turnaround speculation. Someone may get rich on it but it won't be me. I'm not buying stock in a company that has posted 12 consecutive quarterly losses.

Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL), the third-largest U.S. airline, has given up 40 percent of its market value since June 30, and it was already depressed before that. The airline has said that it may have to file for bankruptcy protection and is trying to renegotiate debt terms with creditors.

In May, when Delta shares were at $6.24, I called it ``a good high-risk speculation.'' So far, I've been wrong. The stock stands at $4.20.

I still have a hunch that Delta can wring sufficient concessions from pilots and creditors to avoid Chapter 11. I think airline stocks in general are oversold and due for a bounce.

To contact the writer of this column: John Dorfman in Newton Centre, Massachusetts jdorfman@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: August 26, 2004 00:10 EDT

PrintPrint