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Sarkozy Extends Lead Over Royal as French Race Closes (Update4)

By Francois de Beaupuy

May 4 (Bloomberg) -- Nicolas Sarkozy extended his lead over Segolene Royal in opinion polls two days ahead of the French presidential election as the candidates closed their campaigns with appeals to core supporters.

Sarkozy, who opened a lead of 9 points in a TNS-Sofres survey completed yesterday after a May 2 debate, said last night in the southern city of Montpellier that he'd ``felt France's soul'' during his run for the presidency. The Socialist Royal, speaking in the northern city of Lille, saluted the ``miracle'' of her supporters' energy and pleaded for a massive turnout.

``For Sarkozy to lose, it would require that his electorate fails to turn out,'' said Carine Marce, an associate director at TNS-Sofres. ``That seems unlikely.''

Royal has sought to assemble a coalition ranging from communists to supporters of centrist Francois Bayrou to oppose Sarkozy, the governing-party nominee. Sarkozy, countering critics who say his anti-crime rhetoric and proposal to create a ministry of immigration and national identity make him too polarizing, has portrayed himself as the candidate best able to unite the country and spur the economy.

``He was the favorite before the debate, he didn't lose it, he's probably going to win,'' Roland Lescure, who oversees $100 billion in assets as chief investment officer of Groupama Asset Management in Paris, said in an interview.

Opinion Polls

The TNS-Sofres poll of 1,000 people published in today's Le Figaro showed Sarkozy's lead at 54.5 percent to 45.5 percent, a swing of 5 points from a week ago. A CSA poll of 1,005 people published in Le Parisien showed him up 53 percent to 47 percent, a two-point swing. An Ifop poll for Le Monde also had the race at 53 percent to 47 percent. No margins of error were published.

An Ipsos SA/Dell Inc. daily tracking poll gave Sarkozy a lead of 54 percent to 46 percent among those expressing an opinion, up a point from yesterday. The margin of error in the survey of 1,414 people on May 2-3 was three points.

The surveys suggest Royal, who would be the nation's first woman president, is failing in her effort to win the support of Bayrou's 6.8 million first-round voters. She needs at least 60 percent to make up Sarkozy's 2 million vote edge in the initial round, according to Roland Cayrol, director of CSA.

Each candidate has 35 percent of the Bayrou vote, with the rest undecided or planning to abstain, the Ipsos poll showed. At the beginning of the week, she had 41 percent of his supporters.

Sarkozy Risks

After the publication of the polls today, Royal turned up her rhetoric, saying on RTL radio that his candidacy is ``dangerous'' and that this election could ``trigger violence and brutality across the country.'' Sarkozy, speaking on Europe 1 radio, called the comments ``outrageous.''

``She's trying to frighten the voters in the middle,'' said Robert Harneis, a Royal biographer.

In the first round, Sarkozy won with 31.2 percent of the vote, while Royal scored 25.9 percent. The turnout rate of 84.5 percent was the highest since 1965.

Royal plans to campaign until the legal deadline tonight. After midnight, candidates are barred from appearing on radio and television and polls are prohibited. Following her speech in Lille, where she said France should ``dare'' to elect a woman, Royal traveled to Brittany, where she's visiting a textile plant and wrapping up with a rally in Brest.

In the first round, she won in that Atlantic peninsular region, and Bayrou also scored above his national average there.

Bayrou's View

Bayrou told Le Monde yesterday he's not voting for Sarkozy, though probably won't endorse a candidate.

For Royal to win the presidential and June legislative elections, she needs a ``convergence'' with Bayrou's electorate and with ministers from Bayrou's party, former Socialist Prime Minister Michel Rocard wrote in today's Le Monde newspaper. A Royal victory would lead to a government coalition forced to be more attuned to small parties, he wrote.

More than two-thirds of the 29 lawmakers from Bayrou's Union for French Democracy are supporting Sarkozy, according to Education Minister Gilles de Robien, a UDF member. They include Francois Sauvadet, a Bayrou spokesman, Pierre Albertini, who drafted his platform, and Charles de Courson, who was in charge of economic issues in the campaign.

After the speech in Montpellier, Sarkozy traveled to Annecy in the Alps to visit a memorial to the World War II resistance.

Sarkozy surrogates led rallies throughout France today -- with Defense Minister Michele Alliot-Marie in Ussel, central France, former Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin in Reims, and Trade Minister Christine Lagarde in Limoges.

Oddsmakers see an increasing likelihood of a Sarkozy victory. He's now a 1-12 favorite at London-based Ladbrokes Plc, the world's largest publicly traded gaming group, compared with 1-7 yesterday. Royal is a 6-1 underdog there, down from 4-1. A winning $120 bet on Sarkozy would produce a $10 profit and a similar wager on Royal would yield $720.

To contact the reporter on this story: Francois de Beaupuy in Paris at fdebeaupuy@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: May 4, 2007 10:36 EDT


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