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Oil May Rise as Consumption Increases, Survey Shows (Update1)

By Mark Shenk

Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may rise next week on speculation that OPEC won't increase production as fast as consumption grows this winter.

Twenty-one of 35 analysts surveyed, or 60 percent, said oil prices will rise through Nov. 9, the first bullish response since July 6. Ten, or 29 percent, said prices will decline and four forecast little change. Last week, 49 percent of respondents said oil would fall.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries pledged in September to raise output starting in November to reduce prices. Global use peaks in the fourth quarter, when refiners make heating fuel for the Northern Hemisphere winter. Supplies in the world's most-developed economies fell in the third quarter, countering the usual trend, the International Energy Agency said on Oct. 11.

Crude oil for December delivery rose $4.07, or 4.4 percent, to $95.93 a barrel this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have risen nine of the last 10 weeks. Futures touched $96.24 yesterday, the highest since trading began in 1983. Today's settlement price was a record. Prices have climbed 32 percent since the last bullish survey was released on July 6.

Respondents have predicted price drops in the previous 16 weeks. Prices have declined in five of those weeks. The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 52 percent of the time since the survey's introduction in 2004.


     Bloomberg's survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted
each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil
futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming
week. The results were:

                    RISE      NEUTRAL    FALL
                     21         4         10

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: November 2, 2007 16:22 EDT

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