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Natural Gas Has Biggest Gain in 7 Weeks as Oil Prices Increase

By Geoffrey Smith

March 21 (Bloomberg) -- Natural gas rose the most in seven weeks in New York as prices for rival oil-based fuels climbed.

Industrial companies such as fertilizer and chemical makers carry equipment capable of burning natural gas or oil-based fuels, allowing them to take advantage of price swings. Crude oil gained in New York after a government report showed that supplies of gasoline fell for the sixth week in a row.

``It's mostly due to crude,'' said Ryan McArdle, an energy futures broker at TFS Energy LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. ``Natural gas definitely has some room to rise. Prices had gotten down to the lowest since the middle of January.''

Gas for April delivery rose 25 cents, or 3.6 percent, to settle at $7.16 per million British thermal units at 3:01 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest one-day gain on a percentage basis since Jan. 30. Gas reached $6.812 two days ago, the lowest price since Jan. 19.

Crude oil for May delivery rose 72 cents to $59.97 a barrel. The April gasoline contract reached $1.985 a gallon during yesterday's session, the highest price since Aug. 22. The price dropped 0.72 cent to $1.9349 a gallon today.

Gas prices gained on buying from traders and distributors looking to take advantage of a 6.4 percent decline the past month.

``The market has sold off,'' said Eric Wittenauer, an energy analyst at A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. in St. Louis. ``People see that as a chance to get some trades in.''

End of Winter?

U.S. gas inventories may have declined by 3 billion cubic feet last week, according to the median estimate from 22 analysts in a Bloomberg survey. A drop of that size would be the smallest since November. Estimates for a decline ranged from 2 billion to 15 billion cubic feet.

Gas storage companies typically begin scaling back withdrawals from stored supplies this time of the year as warmer weather cuts consumption of the heating fuel. They usually begin adding to underground storage sites in April, though some analysts said warm weather last week may have left more gas in storage than was removed.

Nine analysts in the Bloomberg survey predicted supplies climbed last week, with estimates for increases ranging from 3 billion to 20 billion cubic feet.

``Weather data last week showed a sharp drop off in the number of heating degree days,'' said Jason Schenker, an economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. ``Because of such a massive shift in the weather, a change from a natural gas draw to a build is likely. Any build is likely to be interpreted as bearish and indicative of the end of the winter heating season.''

Hurricane Season

U.S. weather averaged 28 percent warmer than normal in the week ending March 17, according to population weighted data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

A decline in imports of natural gas from Canada may lead to higher U.S. prices this summer, said Peter Linder, an energy analyst with DeltaOne Capital Partners in Calgary.

``We're going to have the biggest decline in western Canadian production in the history of the industry,'' Linder said. ``There's going to be 400 to 600 million cubic feet a day less production from western Canada in 2007 versus 2006.''

Linder said the combination of falling imports from Canada, the potential for production disruptions from hurricanes, and a tighter supply picture than a year ago will work to keep gas prices in the $9 to $10 per million Btu range this summer.

This year's hurricane season will be more active than last year's, when Gulf of Mexico production of natural gas and oil was unaffected by storms, according to a forecast today from London- based Tropical Storm Risk.

The Atlantic season, which starts June 1 and lasts through November, will deliver nine hurricanes, the forecasters said. Last year's season brought a total of five hurricanes. An average season has six hurricanes.

To contact the reporter on this story: Geoffrey Smith in New York at gsmith15@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: March 21, 2007 15:33 EDT

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