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Oil May Rise on U.S. Gasoline Supply, Survey Shows (Update1)

By Mark Shenk

April 27 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may rise next week on speculation U.S. gasoline supplies will remain below normal going into the summer after refiners shut units for repairs.

Fourteen of 33 analysts surveyed, or 42 percent, said oil prices will rise. Eleven, or 33 percent, said prices will decline and eight forecast that oil will be little changed. Last week, 45 percent of respondents said prices would fall.

Gasoline supplies in the week ended April 20 were down 7.2 percent from the five-year average for the date, the Energy Department said on April 25. Refineries operated at 87.8 percent of capacity, down 2.9 percentage points from the prior week, according to the department. Refineries in Texas and California have had to shut units over the past week.

U.S. refiners usually maximize gasoline output at this time of year in preparation for the summer driving season. U.S. gasoline demand peaks between the Memorial Day holiday in late May and Labor Day in early September.

Crude oil for June delivery rose $2.35, or 3.7 percent, to $66.46 a barrel this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures closed today at the highest since Sept. 7 after Saudi Arabian authorities said they foiled an attack the country's oil fields.

The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of prices 54 percent of the time since it was introduced in April 2004.


     Bloomberg's survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted
each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil
futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming
week. The results were:

                    RISE      NEUTRAL    FALL
                     14          8        11

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: April 27, 2007 15:35 EDT

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