Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil is on track to reach $90 a barrel in New York providing that prices remain above $75, according to technical analysis by Commerzbank AG.

Oil for December delivery is trading around $79 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange today, having climbed to a one- year high of $82 on Oct. 21. The advance may continue to $90, Commerzbank said in a report. The number is an important level using so-called Fibonacci analysis, as it was at the start of oil’s slump toward a four-year low at the end of last year, according to the bank.

“While above $75 we will assume a positive bias with an $89.83 to $90.51 target,” Karen Jones, a Commerzbank analyst in London, said in a report yesterday. This combines a “50 percent Fibonacci retracement, psychological $90 level and September 2008 low.”

Fibonacci analysis assumes markets retrace earlier patterns in specific stages. A move to $89.84 a barrel would mean oil had retraced 50 percent of its collapse from a record $147.27 a barrel in July 2008 to the four-year low of $32.40 in December.

On Sept. 16, 2008, futures dropped to a seven-month low of $90.51 a barrel. They subsequently lost another 64 percent before the end of the year.

Still, a rally toward $90 is not guaranteed. A rally will depend on the market holding around its 200-week moving average at $75.28 a barrel, according to the bank. It’s possible that crude will slide to this level before pushing on to higher values, Commerzbank said.

“A close below $75 would neutralize the chart outlook once more” and test a layer of support at $69.25, Jones wrote. That support comes from a trendline connecting the lowest points during oil’s rally during this year, according to the bank.

To contact the reporter on this story: Grant Smith in London at gsmith52@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: October 30, 2009 09:14 EDT