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Oil Trades Near 18-Month Low on Supply Forecast, Mild Weather

By Christian Schmollinger and Gavin Evans

Jan. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil was little changed near an 18-month low in New York on speculation mild weather in the U.S. Northeast and rising fuel stockpiles will curb demand from refiners.

A U.S. government report today will probably show gasoline and distillate stockpiles in the world's biggest oil consumer rose for a fourth week as reduced heating demand freed refiners to make motor-fuel, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts.

``Refinery production is stable so the inventories are accumulating,'' said Tetsu Emori, chief commodities strategist at Mitsui Bussan Futures Ltd. in Tokyo. ``Even OPEC doing production cuts won't have any impact in the market.''

Crude oil for February delivery was at $55.49 a barrel, down 15 cents, in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 4:01 p.m. in Singapore.

The contract fell 45 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $55.64 a barrel yesterday, the lowest close since June 15, 2005. Futures rose from a low of $53.88 after the Qatari announcement.

Prices have fallen 8.7 percent this year and are down 12 percent from a year ago, as mild weather in the U.S. Northeast erodes heating oil demand and on doubts OPEC can enforce two production cuts agreed the past three months.

The group, which pumps about 40 percent of the world's oil, has cut output by about 795,000 barrels a day since it announced a 1.2 million-barrel reduction starting Nov. 1.

In London, Brent crude oil for February settlement was at $55.07 a barrel, down 11 cents, in electronic trading on the ICE Futures exchange at 4:01 p.m. Singapore time.

Demand

Demand in the U.S. Northeast, which accounts for 80 percent of the nation's heating oil consumption, will be 24 percent below normal in the week ended Jan. 16, Belton, Missouri-based forecaster Weather Derivatives said yesterday.

``You've got less consumption in the Northeast'' and stockpiles will be up, said Mark Waggoner, president of Excel Futures Inc. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is ``definitely cutting back. How much is the question.''

U.S. distillate inventories, including heating oil and diesel, probably rose 2 million barrels last week from 135.6 million barrels the week before, according to the median estimate from a Bloomberg News survey of 14 analysts.

Gasoline supplies probably climbed 2.5 million barrels from 209.5 million, while crude oil stockpiles probably fell 1.5 million barrels from 319.7 million a week earlier, according to the survey.

Even with mild weather, oil's $1.76 climb from its low yesterday demonstrates the strong buying support from investors at any price below $55, Excel's Waggoner said.

U.S. gasoline demand averaged 9.3 million barrels a day in the four weeks ended Dec. 29, up 0.5 percent from a year earlier, the Energy Department reported last week.

Alaska Pipeline

Alaska pipeline regulators said the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System is gradually restarting after a shut down earlier today due to an oil spill of as much as 500 gallons.

``They restarted pump station 1'' at about 2:46 p.m. local time, Rhea DoBosh, communications director at the Joint Pipeline Office in Anchorage, said in a telephone interview.

The pipeline ships crude oil from Alaska's North Slope to the Valdez port. North Slope producers such as BP Plc have had to scale back production to about 35 percent of the normal level of about 800,000 barrels of oil a day, DoBosh said.

She doesn't have a timetable for when production will return to normal.

To contact the reporter on this story: Christian Schmollinger in Singapore at christian.s@bloomberg.net; or Gavin Evans in Wellington at gavinevans@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: January 10, 2007 03:12 EST

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