Nov. 9 (Bloomberg) -- A constituent base is the engine that drives a political party’s success, which is why the Republicans did well in last week’s elections, and may do well in next year’s midterm contests. It also can be an albatross, which is why the party’s fundamental problems persist.

The conservative wing of the Republican Party is dominant. These are often the types of conservatives who take no prisoners on political and social issues, and believe compromise is a dirty word.

The patron saints of these movement conservatives are less political leaders or philosophers and more talk-show hosts such as Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck. To them, everything about Democrats is suspect, including their patriotism.

They also energize the minority of hardcore conservatives in the country who turned out Nov. 3 to elect Republicans as governors in Virginia and New Jersey and win a good share of down-ballot contests.

This energy level, compared with Democrats, many of whom stayed home, is likely to persist through the midterm national elections in 2010. If, as Las Vegas does for sporting events, the odds on the congressional outcome next year would feature an over/under, today it would be a Republican pickup of 20 seats in the House and three in the Senate.

New York House Seat

Nevertheless, the Republican Party is in no better shape than it was a year ago. This was apparent when the party lost a special congressional election in New York after the right wing took over the contest; this was a seat that had been held by the Republicans since the 19th Century.

This illustrates the dilemma. An energized base can turn into a liability when it defines a party, turning off more independent-minded voters. That’s what happened to the Democrats through the 1970s and 1980s.

And almost every survey shows that the number of self- identified Republicans in America is actually in decline.

Party activists and conservative leaders dismiss those numbers. Their main talking point is a Gallup poll last month that showed an increase in people identifying themselves as conservatives, particularly among independents. Since the Republicans are plainly the more conservative party in America, they’re on the upswing, this reasoning goes.

That’s a reach. A number of the most reputable pollsters believe the Gallup data have been vastly over-interpreted: If there’s any shift in public attitudes it’s very small and doesn’t redound to the Republicans’ advantage.

‘Worst Scores in 20 Years’

“On a feeling thermometer, Republicans have the worst scores in 20 years,” says Peter Hart, who conducts the NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey. Ann Selzer, who is the pollster for Bloomberg News, concurs: “There may be a few more fiscal conservatives but not social conservatives, and that’s where the Republicans have moved.”

Last week’s results underscore the fundamentals. It was all about turnout; Republicans voted, while there was a huge drop off in Democrats and independents who support President Barack Obama.

What that suggests isn’t a movement toward conservatives or Republicans. It is that Obama, along with almost every popular politician from Dwight D. Eisenhower through Ronald Reagan, can’t transfer his appeal. The much-hyped Obama grassroots machine, which was so effective in getting him elected, doesn’t have coattails when it comes to congressional races or issues such as health care.

Angry and Alienated

In elections such as 2009 and 2010, the angry and alienated turn out in larger proportions. Ultimately the Republicans will have to offer an alternative vision of governance; it’s what they did successfully in 1980.

This usually gets them in trouble on hot-button social issues. It could prove a loser on economic and fiscal matters, too. The Republican agenda -- tax cuts for business and investors, pretty much the status quo on health care and an unwillingness to take on entitlements -- doesn’t add up and offers minimal appeal to important constituencies such as younger voters, Hispanics and working-class women.

Red meat, not vision, is what conservative activists and their flock around the country demand; those that don’t follow do so at their own peril.

For example, conservatives scored a big victory in New York when they forced out a liberal Republican candidate in favor of a conservative. Shortly before the election, Limbaugh accused the ousted liberal Republican of political “bestiality.” When asked about it, Doug Hoffman, the conservative candidate, ducked the issue. A few days later the Democrat carried the seat.

Limbaugh Rebuke

A few days ago, in a rare Republican rebuke to the talk- radio personality, House Minority Whip Eric Cantor objected to parallels that Limbaugh drew between the Obama administration and the Nazis.

Beck, the other celebrated conservative talkmeister, orchestrated a campaign against Obama’s regulatory czar, Cass Sunstein, a respected law professor who incurs the wrath of liberals because of his pro-market views on regulation. He once wrote a scholarly article on humane treatment of animals. Beck and his ilk mounted a campaign against him, with the charge he wanted to give animals the right to sue humans.

It sounds silly. Thirty-one Senate Republicans voted against Sunstein.

Criticism of Snowe

Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, usually level-headed, recently joined the chorus of the right-wing attacks on Maine’s Republican Senator Olympia Snowe, saying “she can’t say she’s a Republican and then vote against the Republican position much of the time.” Although Pawlenty later backed down, this is the sort of anti-inclusion message that the movement right demands of presidential hopefuls such as the Minnesota governor.

Looking ahead to next November, Democrats fear an unemployment rate stuck around 10 percent and the makings of a quagmire in Afghanistan. And if they botch up health care, as Senate leaders are risking now, these internal Republican antics may not matter.

If the Democrats avoid those nightmares, more important than a questionable Gallup poll will be a Republican agenda shaped by the party’s fringe elements. That will turn off independents and other voters.

If that happens, bet on the under.

(Albert R. Hunt is the executive editor for Washington at Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are his own.)

To contact the writer of this column: Albert R. Hunt in Washington at ahunt1@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: November 9, 2009 00:00 EST