By Rodney Jefferson and Peter Woodifield
Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Scotland’s two biggest fund managers say it’s getting tougher to make money from Asian stocks.
Aberdeen Asset Management Plc has been reducing its holdings because of their valuations compared with other parts of the world, said Mike Turner, head of strategy. Ronnie Petrie, head of Asian stocks at Standard Life Investments, sold shares such as Japanese computer gaming company Nintendo Co. and bought Globe Telecom Inc. in the Philippines.
“We have taken our foot off the accelerator, but we are a long way away from putting our foot on the brake,” Turner, whose company managed 129 billion pounds ($212 billion) on June 30, said in an interview at his office in Edinburgh yesterday. “It’s ripe for a little consolidation in Asian markets.”
Investors are growing wary that Asian central banks are starting to raise interest rates and unwind measures designed to lift their economies. China may tighten monetary policy starting in the second quarter of 2010 because of faster growth and rising consumer prices, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Oct. 29.
Australia raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point on Oct. 6, while economists forecast India also might increase borrowing costs in coming quarters.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index, which has soared 63 percent since hitting the lowest in more than five years on March 9, yesterday extended its first monthly drop since February.
‘Pockets of Value’
“It’s harder to find pockets of value,” Petrie said in an interview yesterday at Edinburgh-based Standard Life, which oversaw 136.9 billion pounds as of Sept. 30. “It’s difficult to be massively enthusiastic from here.”
Companies in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index trade for 15.8 times estimated 2010 earnings, compared with 13.4 for the MSCI World Index of developed markets 12.2 for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and 13.5 for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, the benchmark measure of U.S. stocks.
Turner said he’s concerned that fewer companies in Asia are beating analysts’ earnings estimates. Less than 53 percent in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index have topped the average projection since Oct. 7, trailing the 84 percent for S&P 500 companies, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Beijing-based PetroChina Co., the world’s second most-valuable company, missed forecasts last week.
“There is no longer a great element of surprise in earnings,” Turner, 47, said at his office. Aberdeen oversees 13.7 billion pounds of Asian stocks. “It’s time to take a little bit of money off the table.”
Standard Life is selling Nintendo, which fell the most in three months on Oct. 30 after it lowered its annual profit forecast because of slumping sales of Wii game consoles.
Nintendo ‘Thesis’
Petrie, 43, said the company’s “thesis on Nintendo was wrong.” The stock is down 13 percent in the past six months. He also sold PT Bumi Resources, Indonesia’s biggest coal company.
Over the past year, Standard Life’s investments in Asian stocks outside Japan returned 66 percent for pension clients, ranking 37 of 138 similar plans, according to data from Chicago- based Morningstar Inc.
Petrie has bought Globe Telecom, the second-largest provider of mobile-phone service in the Philippines. He also invested in China HealthCare Holdings Ltd. and Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer Co., a maker of medical devices, betting that China will spend more on health care as the economy expands.
Chinese manufacturing data for October yesterday showed the recovery strengthening and export orders growing. Premier Wen Jiabao’s stimulus and $1.27 trillion in new loans are sustaining China’s rebound after exports slumped. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is up 50 percent this year.
Turner said the risk now is that central banks in Asia act more quickly than their counterparts in the U.S. and Western Europe to respond to the economic recovery.
“There is acknowledgement that monetary policy will change in Asia and other emerging markets before it does in the developed world, that the stimulus will be taken off the table sooner,” Turner said.
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Last Updated: November 2, 2009 19:00 EST
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