Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC won’t need to raise oil production levels when it meets next month in Angola because stockpiles are “very high,” the group’s head of research said.

“I don’t see that production should be increased,” Hasan Qabazard said in an interview today in Doha, Qatar. “Stocks are a worry, particularly the product stocks. At current calculations we will go to stock build early next year.”

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries made a record 4.2 million barrel-a-day cut in production targets last year as fuel demand tumbled during the worst recession since the 1930s. The group has left quotas unchanged at its three meetings this year.

Oil inventories in industrialized countries, which have dropped to 58 to 59 days of forward cover, will rise again in early 2010, Qabazard said. Compliance with quotas has fallen to between 62 percent and 63 percent, from 89 percent in March, he said.

Demand for OPEC’s crude, the so-called call on OPEC, is estimated to average 28.6 million barrels a day this year, a drop of 2.3 million barrels a day from the previous year, the group said in a report published last month. Demand will be lower in 2010, averaging 28.4 million barrels a day, it said then. OPEC will publish its next monthly report tomorrow.

“Next year will be the third consecutive year for less call on OPEC,” Qabazard said. “We don’t believe there will be a need to raise production early next year.”

Oil Prices

Oil prices have gained 78 percent in New York this year, trading at $79.27 a barrel at 12:29 p.m. London time. Prices of more than $90 or $100 a barrel would harm the global economic recovery, Qabazard said.

The group needs to ensure quota levels are adhered to as output from Angola and Nigeria rises, according to a report by the Centre for Global Energy Studies published today.

“If these two upward trends continue, OPEC might have to consider further action, but at present the fact that output in other countries such as Libya and the U.A.E. is being trimmed means that the organization’s level of compliance remains respectable,” the London-based consultant said.

OPEC raised crude-oil production last month to the highest level in 10 months as members took advantage of higher prices, a Bloomberg News survey showed last week. The 11 members with quotas pumped 26.31 million barrels a day, or 1.465 million barrels above their target.

The group meets in Luanda, Angola, on Dec. 22.

IEA View

Asked whether OPEC should increase production at that meeting, Nobuo Tanaka, the executive director of the Paris-based International Energy Agency, said: “we have to watch carefully how the oil market will move.”

“If the economic recovery is coming suddenly we need more oil so we have to watch carefully how the economy really moves and we wish that OPEC is taking a good look at the current situation and will make a proper decision,” Tanaka said in an interview in London today.

There is more evidence of a recovery in oil demand in the U.S. and China than there is in Europe and Japan, he added.

OPEC’s 12 members are Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela.

To contact the reporter on this story: Robert Tuttle in Doha, Qatar at rtuttle@bloomberg.net; Ayesha Daya in Dubai at adaya1@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: November 10, 2009 12:48 EST