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Crude Oil Trades Near $54 on Signs of Economic Improvement

By Christian Schmollinger

May 5 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil was little changed near a five-month high as pending sales of U.S. existing homes jumped along with spending on construction projects, signaling energy demand may improve with the economy.

Oil gained 2.4 percent yesterday as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index erased its 2009 loss. The National Association of Realtors’ index of signed purchase agreements climbed for a second month. Equities markets in China and Australia rose on optimism the worst of the global recession has passed.

“The market has been surprised to the upside by the data coming out of the U.S.,” said Ben Westmore, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne. “The strength of late is definitely an indication that markets are sensing a bottom in the economy.”

Crude oil for June delivery was at $54.01 a barrel, down 46 cents, at 2:26 p.m. Singapore time on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Yesterday, it rose $1.27 to $54.47, the highest settlement since Nov. 24. Oil is up 21 percent this year.

Spending on U.S. construction unexpectedly rose in March for the first time in six months as increases in commercial and government projects overshadowed a drop in home building.

Crude oil also gained as the dollar traded near a one-month low against the euro. Investors seek purchases of commodities and oil as a hedge against inflation as the currency declines.

Stress Tests

The S&P 500 climbed to the highest level in almost four months. It added 29.72, or 3.4 percent, to 907.24. The index is up 0.4 percent for the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 214.33 points, or 2.6 percent, to 8,426.74. Stocks in Europe and Asia also increased.

The Federal Reserve and U.S. banking regulators will release the results of their stress tests on May 7 that will see whether 19 of the largest banks can survive a recession. The government may tell 10 of the institutions, including Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. to raise more capital, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing unidentified people.

“Going forward, a big test will be the announcement of the stress tests on the U.S. banks,” said National Australia’s Westmore. “If the markets are surprised by the level of capital these banks need that could put downward pressure on equity markets and oil markets.”

U.S. oil inventories probably rose 2.55 million barrels last week from 374.7 million barrels, the highest since September 1990, based on the median estimate of six analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

‘Supply Not Pretty’

“The market takes firmer equity markets as a lead indicator for stronger oil demand - not a bad assumption - but the equity gains need to be consolidated,” said Mark Pervan, head of commodity research at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne in a note today. “If equity participants take profits then the focus will switch to supply and that’s not a pretty picture.”

Gasoline supplies probably gained 550,000 barrels last week from 212.6 million the week before, and refineries operated at 83.1 percent of capacity, up 0.4 percentage point, according to the survey.

The motor fuel rose to a six-month high on speculation demand will increase. The so-called summer driving season in the U.S. begins at the end of the month. The U.S. is the world’s biggest energy-consuming country.

Gasoline for June delivery was at $1.5847 a gallon, down 0.13 cent, at 2:21 p.m. Singapore time after rising 4.5 percent on the New York Mercantile Exchange yesterday.

Commodities Rise

Increased manufacturing in China helped push up prices for commodities including copper, platinum and palladium. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities rose 3.34 points, or 1.5 percent, to 232.38, the fourth consecutive increase.

A Chinese manufacturing index expanded for the first time in nine months, a sign that the world’s third-biggest economy may be recovering. The CLSA China Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to a seasonally adjusted 50.1 in April from 44.8 in March, CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets said yesterday in a statement. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion.

Brent crude oil for June settlement was at $54.19 a barrel, down 39 cents, on London’s ICE Futures exchange at 2:25 p.m. Singapore time. The contract rose $1.73, or 3.3 percent, to end the session at $54.58 a barrel yesterday. U.K. financial markets were closed yesterday for a holiday.

Asian nations may resist dipping into their new $120 billion foreign-exchange reserve pool as the region is showing signs of emerging from the worst global recession since World War II, officials and economists said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Christian Schmollinger in Singapore at christian.s@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: May 5, 2009 02:30 EDT

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