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Gap, American Eagle Sales Top Analysts’ Estimates (Update3)

By Allison Abell Schwartz

Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Gap Inc., Limited Brands Inc. and American Eagle Outfitters Inc. reported smaller August sales declines than analysts estimated as consumers made back-to- school purchases and recessionary pressures eased.

Sales at U.S. stores open at least a year fell 3 percent at Gap, operator of Old Navy and Banana Republic, compared with the 6.7 percent average of analysts’ estimates compiled by Retail Metrics Inc. Comparable-store sales at Limited, the owner of Victoria’s Secret, dropped 4 percent, compared with the 5.5 percent projected decline. American Eagle fell 7 percent, compared with an 8.9 percent average estimate.

August sales represent a significant portion of back-to- school shopping, said Ken Perkins, president of Swampscott, Massachusetts-based Retail Metrics. Because Labor Day falls later this year, some people will be shopping for the start of school in September, he said.

“We expect sequential monthly improvement into the holidays with Christmas 2009 likely to be weak but not disastrous,” Perkins said today in a note.

Gap, based in San Francisco, rose $1.49, or 7.6 percent, to $21.18 at 4:05 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares have climbed 58 percent this year. Pittsburgh’s American Eagle gained $1.07, or 7.9 percent, to $14.64, the biggest one-day advance since April 9. The shares have gained 56 percent this year. Limited of Columbus, Ohio, added 81 cents, or 5.5 percent to $15.53 for a year-to-date gain of 55 percent.

Best Since September

Retail Metrics said U.S. comparable-store sales dropped 2.3 percent, beating the 3.4 percent estimated decline. That’s the best monthly sales performance since last September, according to Perkins.

Comparable sales at Aeropostale Inc., the U.S. teen retailer, climbed 9 percent, helped by discounts. Analysts had projected a 7.2 percent rise. The New York-based retailer also boosted its third-quarter earnings forecast by 2 cents, to as much as 80 cents a share. The shares jumped $2.71, or 7 percent, to $41.29, and have more than doubled so far this year.

August accounts for 35 percent to 40 percent of third- quarter retail sales, according to Betty Chen, an analyst at Wedbush Morgan Securities in San Francisco. Many U.S. schools open the week after Labor Day, which falls on Sept. 7. It was Sept. 1 in 2008.

The International Council of Shopping Centers said August retail sales declined by 2 percent based on results at 32 chains, less than the predicted drop of as much as 4 percent. Sales in September may fall as much as 2 percent, according to Mike Niemira, the New York-based trade group’s chief economist.

‘Expect Less Decline’

“I would start to expect less and less decline and more and more positive surprise,” he said today in a telephone interview.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world’s largest retailer, said on Aug. 13 that it expects sales at stores open at least a year to rise as much as 2 percent in the quarter ending Oct. 30. The Bentonville, Arkansas-based chain doesn’t report monthly sales.

Sales at Target Corp., the second-biggest U.S. discount retailer, declined 2.9 percent in August, less than the 5.1 percent slide analysts had projected.

The Reuters/University of Michigan index of U.S. consumer sentiment for August was little changed as reports indicated industries such as housing and manufacturing are stabilizing and the economy is on a path to recovery. The New York-based Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 54.1 in August, more than forecast and the first gain in three months.

To contact the reporter on this story: Allison Abell Schwartz in New York at aabell@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: September 3, 2009 16:15 EDT

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