Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Late-night king Jay Leno may be turning from a winner to an also-ran for NBC.

Companies that buy broadcast television time at 10 p.m., when Leno’s new show will air weekdays starting in September, won’t spend as much on him as on his ABC and CBS competition, said Andy Donchin, director of TV ad buying at Carat USA in New York, which represents Pfizer Inc. and Papa John’s International Inc.

“Leno won’t win the time period,” Donchin said. “Advertisers aren’t going to pay the same for Leno as they pay for a 10 o’clock original, prime-time scripted drama.”

The gamble may end badly for the General Electric Co.-owned network if Leno doesn’t draw significantly more viewers than the average 3.7 million who watch his “Tonight Show” at 11:30 p.m., said Peter Gardiner, chief media officer at Interpublic Group of Cos.’ Deutsch Inc.

“NBC is making a decision more about margins and profit- and-loss than the benefits of ratings,” Gardiner said. “It’s not smart in the long term, but then I don’t have to turn in quarterly budgets to GE.”

NBC, last in broadcast TV prime-time ratings for the past four years, gave Leno the 10 p.m. slot to meet a GE directive to cut costs and to prevent the comedian from jumping to Walt Disney Co.’s ABC when Conan O’Brien takes over in June as “Tonight Show” host. Leno, 58, wasn’t available for comment, publicist Dick Guttman said in an e-mail.

While one episode of “Law & Order” can cost $3 million to produce, the bill for one hour of comedy and talk is about $350,000, according to NBC.

‘Good Luck Leno’

Leno is “not going to draw the ratings of a blockbuster drama at 10, there’s not much doubt about that,” said Mike Pilot, president of sales and marketing for NBC Universal, GE’s entertainment division. “But the consensus reaction of advertisers has been universally positive. They feel that Jay’s style of humor will work at 10.”

For the first time, he won’t follow local nightly news, instead coming after programs including “30 Rock.”

“Good luck, Leno -- good luck with that lead-in,” Tina Fey, producer and star of “30 Rock,” joked to reporters at the Jan. 11 Golden Globes, where she won best actress in a TV comedy and the show won for best TV comedy.

Ad buyers won’t be sure how clients will respond until the Leno show format is settled and NBC determines how often commercials will be woven in, Pilot said.

Planning sessions with Leno will continue through the winter, with “serious discussions” with advertisers starting in the spring, Pilot said.

14.1 Million Viewers

However those talks go, “advertisers will expect cheaper rates,” said Karen McCallum, media director at Esparza Advertising in Albuquerque, New Mexico.

This season, NBC has averaged $104,000 for a 30-second ad for weekday shows at 10 p.m., according to Advertising Age. CBS, the season’s ratings leader, commands an average $136,000 and ABC gets an average $119,000, the magazine reported Dec. 29. News Corp.’s Fox doesn’t air programs at 10 p.m.

Since Leno succeeded Johnny Carson as “Tonight Show” host in 1992, he has been at the top of the ratings for its hour. At 10 p.m., “CSI: Miami” on CBS is the most-watched program, averaging 14.1 million viewers.

“I will bet anybody who would like to bet that ‘CSI: Miami’ on Monday night at 10 o’clock will beat Jay by a lot,” said Leslie Moonves, chief executive officer of CBS Corp., at an investor conference last month. “Remember that -- by a lot.”

On NBC, the leading 10 p.m. dramas have been “ER,” in its 15th and final season, and “Law & Order: SVU,” in its 10th year.

Failing ‘Miserably’

The network hasn’t decided whether its current 10 o’clock shows will move to 9 p.m. or shift to the NBC-owned cable channel, USA Network, as happened in 2007 with “Law & Order: Criminal Intent,” according to Pilot.

Dick Wolf, creator of the “Law & Order” series, wasn’t available for comment, spokeswoman Pam Golum said.

With few exceptions, NBC has failed “miserably” in developing successors to “Seinfeld,” “Friends” and other shows that led the network to dominance in the 1990s, said Jason Kanefsky, director of national broadcast advertising for New York-based MPG North America.

Leno in the last hour of prime time won’t be a remedy because “sooner or later, people will grow tired of what is really a sketch comedy show and they’ll turn to ABC and CBS,” Kanefsky said.

Falling Profits

GE doesn’t break out network operations. NBC Universal, which includes theme parks and cable channels, contributed 9.2 percent of GE’s 2007 revenue and 11 percent of its operating profit. Fairfield, Connecticut-based GE plans to report 2008 results on Jan. 23.

Fourth-quarter profit will be at the low end of the company’s guidance of 36 cents to 42 cents a share, Barclays Capital analyst Robert Cornell wrote yesterday in a report.

For NBC Universal, profit should be little-changed in 2009 at about $3 billion, GE Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Immelt told investors last month at the company’s annual outlook meeting.

Some companies may not be interested in buying time with Leno at an earlier hour, McCallum said.

“Now, he gets more of the younger, edgier, niche industries advertising,” she said. “Some of those commercials have the potential to offend viewers in prime time.”

If Belgium-based beer maker Anheuser-Busch InBev NV advertises with Leno this fall, its commercials will more likely be those “with Clydesdale horses than with bikini girls in mud,” McCallum said.

‘Kukla, Fran and Ollie’

The Leno shift will reduce NBC’s weeknight scripted schedule by five hours, or 33 percent. As a program appearing five nights a week before 11 p.m., his will be the network’s first such effort since “Kukla, Fran and Ollie” more than 50 years ago. The puppet show was on NBC for five years before moving in 1954 to ABC, where it ran for three years.

Whatever success Leno has at 10 p.m., September will mark a change for how NBC defines itself as a network, Gardiner said.

“It raises the question, what is NBC in prime time as a network?” he said. “It used to be the leader of quality drama and comedy content. With what’s left standing, what is it?”

To contact the reporters on this story: Michael Janofsky in Los Angeles at mjanofsky@bloomberg.netAndy Fixmer in Los Angeles at afixmer@bloomberg.net;

Last Updated: January 14, 2009 00:01 EST