By Mike Cohen
July 28 (Bloomberg) -- South Africa's inflation rate probably rose for the 10th consecutive month in June and may have reached the highest since the targeted measure was introduced in 1998, a survey showed.
CPIX inflation, which excludes mortgage costs, accelerated to 11.3 percent, matching the record set in November 2002, from 10.9 percent in May, according to the median estimate of 13 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The Pretoria-based Statistics South Africa will publish the data at 11:30 a.m. on July 30.
The central bank has raised interest rates six times in a year to tame inflation, which has exceeded its 6 percent target since April 2007. Rates may not rise any further after economic growth slowed and the statistics agency said it would change the basket of products used to measure price growth next year, possibly reducing the inflation rate.
``Everybody knows that the headline number is going to be going up,'' due to food and gasoline price increases, said Arthur Kamp, an economist at Sanlam Investment Management in Cape Town. ``You will probably find core inflation pressures start to subside later this year.''
Increased interest rates may have damped demand for credit. Growth in borrowing slowed to 19 percent last month from 19.7 percent the month before, according to the median estimate of 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The central bank will release the credit data at 8 a.m. tomorrow.
On July 31, the South African Revenue Services will release trade data for the month of June. The country's trade gap widened to 4.8 billion rand, from 1.7 billion rand in May, according to the median estimate of eight economists.
Mining Profits
Several of South Africa's biggest mining companies are due to release earnings this week.
Anglo Platinum Ltd., the world's largest producer of the metal, will announce first-half earnings today. Earnings per share excluding one-time items were 15 to 25 percent higher than a year earlier as increased prices made up for lower sales, the company said on July 14.
On July 30, Anglo American Plc, the biggest investor in South African mining, will release first-half earnings, while ArcelorMittal South Africa Ltd. announces second-quarter profit.
AngloGold Ashanti Ltd., the country's largest gold miner, will release second-quarter earnings on July 31. On July 14, the company said it mined 1.25 million ounces over the three months at a cost of about $434 an ounce. The earnings will be slashed by a pre-tax loss of about $1.1 billion the company incurred as it cut its forward sales contracts to benefit from record prices for the metal.
On July 30, Mondi Plc, the paper and packaging company spun off by Anglo American Plc, will release first-half earnings, while Sappi Ltd., the world's largest producer of glossy paper used in magazines, will release second-quarter profit. Gold Fields Ltd., South Africa's No. 2 gold producer, will release earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter on Aug. 1.
The Markets
Last week, South Africa's benchmark government bonds rose for a second week, with the yield on the 13.5 percent note due September 2015 falling 20 basis points, or 0.2 percentage point, to 9.68 percent. Yields fall when bond prices rise.
The rand was little changed against the dollar at 7.5930. It rose to a two-month high of 11.7829 against the euro during the week and ended the week at 11.9147.
The benchmark FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index declined for a tenth consecutive week, falling 2.2 percent to 26,995.80. Harmony Gold Mining Co., South Africa's third-biggest gold producer, fell 13 percent while Gold Fields Ltd., the second largest, declined 9.2 percent.
The following is a list of important events taking place in Southern Africa next week:
**T Event Anglo Platinum Ltd. release interim earnings July 28 Release of South African bank supervision report July 29 Release of South African money supply data July 29 Release of South African credit extension data July 29 Mondi Plc releases interim earnings July 30 ArcelorMittal South Africa Ltd. release earnings July 30 Release of South African Consumer Inflation Data July 30 AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. second-quarter earnings July 31 Anglo American Plc first-half earnings July 31 Release of South African Power Consumption Data July 31 Lesego Platinum Mining Ltd. lists on JSE July 31 Sappi Ltd. releases second quarter earnings July 31 Release of South African Producer Inflation Data July 31 Release of South African trade data July 31 Gold Fields Ltd. Releases Fourth Quarter Results Aug. 1 Investec releases purchasing managers index Aug. 1
To contact the reporter on this story: Mike Cohen in Cape Town at mcohen21@bloomberg.netLast Updated: July 27, 2008 18:00 EDT
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