Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- While the 105th World Series may generate as much as $87 million of additional revenue for the No. 1 and No. 6 cities in the U.S., analysts of the game know Philadelphia’s triumph last night is the worst omen for the economy if history repeats itself.

The Phillies beat the Tampa Bay Rays in last year’s series in five games and won the first game this year, 6-1, against the New York Yankees. Another championship would be the first back- to-back titles for a Philadelphia baseball team since 1929 and 1930 when they were won by the Philadelphia Athletics.

“We all know what happened then,” said Ryan Sweet, senior economist at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

Sweet, who isn’t forecasting a Depression, produced a study on the eve of last year’s World Series that showed whenever a Philadelphia team won the title the economy soured badly, a pattern that held true in 2008.

This year is different. The latest reports from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and the U.S. Commerce Department show that things are looking up, no matter who wins the series.

The bank’s index of general business activity in the Philadelphia region, including eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware, is at 11.5, its third straight month above zero, after 10 consecutive months of contraction.

The U.S. economy expanded at a 3.5 percent pace from July through September, exceeding the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, after shrinking the previous four quarters, according to figures today from the Commerce Department in Washington.

Economic Impact

The proximity of the cities separated by 100 miles (160 kilometers) of New Jersey Turnpike, may help Major League Baseball’s championship round be a bright spot for the economies of New York and Philadelphia, amid the worst recession since World War II. The cities may gain from tourism and publicity.

Each World Series game played at Yankee Stadium is worth an estimated $15.5 million to the New York City economy, according to the city’s Economic Development Corp. Philadelphia expects a $25 million infusion of cash from the series, said Larry Needle, executive director of the Philadelphia Sports Congress, an arm of the Philadelphia Convention and Visitors Bureau.

The Phillies and Yankees are meeting in the World Series for the second time and the first since 1950, when New York won four games to none. The Phillies are aiming for their third title, while the Yankees are seeking their 27th.

The Yankees could play as many as four games against the Phillies in their new, $1.5 billion Bronx stadium, each valued about 30 percent more to city businesses than an ordinary MLB playoff game, according to David Lombino, a spokesman for the corporation.

Philadelphia’s Gain

That includes money spent by visitors, players and media on hotels, retail, transportation and dining, assuming that about 34,000 people attend each game who don’t live in the city, the analysis said. It also estimated the indirect economic impact, such as workers spending money earned at the stadium, at $5.2 million.

The effect on Philadelphia is expected to be about $5 million more than the city booked a year ago, when the Phillies defeated the Tampa Bay Rays to become world champions, Needle said. About 15,000 New Yorkers are expected to visit the city this weekend, when as many as three games will be hosted. That’s double the number of Rays fans who traveled to the Pennsylvania city last fall, Needle said.

“The excitement is even greater than last year,” he said. “It certainly has not gotten old.”

2008 Series

Each glimpse that television offers of the city skyline, the picturesque Philadelphia Museum of Art and boat house row on the Schuylkill River is equivalent to a national television ad that would cost $400,000, said Jeff Guaracino, vice president of communications for the Greater Philadelphia Tourism marketing Corp.

“We could not afford to buy that kind of ad,” he said. “You really do get an opportunity to give a whole new group of people a view of the city as it is today.”

Last year’s World Series, combined with a major convention, filled Philadelphia’s hotel rooms so completely that the visiting team had to travel to Wilmington, Delaware, 32 miles south, to find rooms when rain forced a postponement of the series finale.

This year the Infectious Diseases Society of America convention has booked about one-fourth of the city’s 10,000 hotel rooms, said Ed Grose, executive director of the Greater Philadelphia Hotel Association. He expects another sellout, though rooms are still available today, he said.

“We expect a lot of overnight visitors since the games start at 8 o’clock,” he said.

500 Cheesesteaks

One New York restaurant is receiving an immediate boost. The Greater Philadelphia Tourism Marketing Corp. planned to buy 500 cheesesteaks for New Yorkers from Shorty’s in midtown Manhattan before Game 1 to encourage them to travel to Philadelphia for Games 3, 4 and possibly 5.

That token of goodwill may be overshadowed by the rivalry when Shorty’s night manager wears his Yankees jersey, owner Evan Stein said.

“I was going to give him the week off, but he’s decked out in full Yankee gear and I have to let him work, so I’m sure he’ll be harassed thoroughly,” Stein said. “I couldn’t be happier that the Phillies are in this, especially against New York.”

Last October, New York cheesesteak restaurant 99 Miles to Philly had sales gains of more than 30 percent as the Phillies had their championship run, while Wogie’s Bar and Grill tripled its business, their owners said.

Philadelphia Complex

Philadelphians can have a complex because there’s New York to the north and Washington to the south, said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisers in suburban Holland, Pennsylvania. “We sort of feel like, ‘Hey, look at us,’” he said. “It’s the sixth-largest city in the country and nobody knows it exists. Case/Shiller doesn’t even include it in their housing indexes.”

That makes the Phillies even more important than their contributions to the economy, Naroff said.

“This is a city that lives and dies with its sports, and it’s been dying for a long time,” he said. “The Phillies’ winning last year created a huge amount of civic pride.”

Sweet says he is backing the Phillies, even with the history. He’s a Boston Red Sox fan, and, as such, is encouraging Phillies fans and Yankee-haters like himself to pull for Philadelphia, regardless of the implications.

“The economy withstood a tremendous amount of shocks in the past year,” he said. “I think the economy is strong enough to withstand another Philadelphia victory.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Michael J. Moore in New York at mmoore55@bloomberg.net; Dunstan McNichol in Trenton, New Jersey, at Or dmcnichol@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: October 29, 2009 10:05 EDT