April 2 (Bloomberg) -- Airbus SAS, the world’s biggest planemaker, said deliveries may drop as much as 15 percent next year in a worst-case scenario before picking up again in 2011.

A target of 483 deliveries this year should still be achieved, John Leahy, who is also chief operating officer, said today in a presentation to analysts reproduced on the Web site of Airbus parent European Aeronautic, Defence & Space Co.

The assertion that output will bottom out next year is a surprise and seems implausible, said Nick Cunningham, an analyst at Evolution Securities in London who attended the briefing in Broughton, Wales. He rates EADS shares “sell.”

Airbus’s 2009 delivery target is the same as for last year. The Toulouse, France-based company handed over 76 planes in the first two months, matching the year-earlier period. In the first three months, Airbus won eight orders, net of cancellations, according to today’s presentation. That compares with a net intake of minus eight through February, resulting from 14 lost contracts and just six new orders.

EADS shares rose 5.3 percent to 9.45 euros today, paring declines this year to 21 percent and valuing the company at 7.7 billion euros ($10 billion).

Airbus and U.S. rival Boeing Co. have said orders will fall and that some sales contracts may be dropped as the recession hurts demand for travel and the credit lunch limits the options open to airlines for financing purchase.

EADS Chief Financial Officer Hans Peter Ring told today’s briefing that there is very little visibility for next year in large part because of the lack of financing, Cunningham said by telephone.

To contact the reporter on this story: Andrea Rothman in Toulouse, France, at aerothman@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: April 2, 2009 11:56 EDT