By Alexander Kwiatkowski
Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil advanced from a 13-month low on speculation OPEC will announce production cuts at a meeting next week.
Oil rallied after OPEC said it brought forward to next week a November meeting to discuss output levels, raising speculation the group will slash production to stem a price slump. Oil has tumbled more than 50 percent since reaching a record $147.27 in July as the worst financial crisis since the 1930s threatens to push the world into a recession, curbing fuel demand.
``With an oil price at $70 a barrel, OPEC members will push for a cut of at least 1 million barrels a day,'' said Rob Laughlin, senior broker at MF Global Ltd. in London. ``Anything less would be worthless in terms of the current crisis in the demand outlook.''
Crude oil for November delivery rose as much as $3.17, or 4.5 percent, to $73.02 a barrel, and traded at $70.48 at 1:29 p.m. London time on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Yesterday, it fell $4.69, or 6.3 percent, to $69.85 a barrel, the lowest settlement since Aug. 23, 2007.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which supplies more than 40 percent of the world's oil, will likely reduce oil output by 1 million barrels a day at next week's meeting to check the drop in prices, Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah al-Attiyah said.
``It will be one million, or more,'' he told Qatar's Al- Jazeera television channel. ``Prices have fallen a lot and we need to take measures.''
OPEC Supplies
OPEC oil supplies fell 3.8 percent in September to 31.8 million barrels a day, according to revised data from Geneva- based consultants PetroLogistics Ltd. The amount declined from 33.05 million barrels in August because of lower sales by Saudi Arabia and Iran, company founder Conrad Gerber said by e-mail yesterday.
Preliminary estimates from PetroLogistics had indicated a reduction in September supply of 2.4 percent to 32.6 million barrels a day.
``I don't think OPEC will cut by more than 1 million barrels in October, only because there is another meeting in December,'' at which they will probably crimp production again, said Hannes Loacker, analyst at Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich in Vienna. ``The problem now is very, very weak demand data.''
Fuel demand in the U.S., consumer of 24 percent of the world's oil, was at the lowest since July 1999 during the past four weeks, according to a weekly supply report from the Energy Department. Demand averaged about 18.6 million barrels a day, according to yesterday's report.
U.S. Inventories
U.S. oil supplies rose 5.6 million barrels to 308.2 million barrels last week, the department said. Crude oil inventories were forecast to rise 2.6 million barrels, according to the median of analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.
Brent crude oil for December settlement rose as much as $2.76, or 4.1 percent, to $70.60 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was at $68.23 a barrel at 1:29 p.m. London time.
Oil prices are likely to fall next week on concerns about shrinking demand, eleven of 28 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 39 percent, said. Ten respondents, or 36 percent, said oil will rise and seven forecast little change.
To contact the reporters of this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski in London at akwiatkowsk2@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: October 17, 2008 08:30 EDT
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