Nov. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Russians are back to playing their favorite parlor game: speculating on whether or when Vladimir Putin will reclaim the presidency.

Some opposition politicians, analysts and investors are guessing that the credit crunch and Russia's faltering economy may persuade the former president, now prime minister, to oust his chosen successor, Dmitry Medvedev, next year. If Medvedev resigns, presidential elections would be held, allowing Putin, still Russia's most influential figure, to resume full control.

Such a scenario would let Putin, 56, dodge political fallout from the economic slump because Russians traditionally blame nationwide problems on the prime minister, not the president. It also would dash Western hopes of a thaw with Russia under Medvedev, a 43-year-old lawyer who succeeded Putin in May.

``The current leadership could call presidential elections within the next few months,'' said Mikhail Kasyanov, Putin's prime minister from 2000 to 2004, and now an opponent. ``These `elections' will have one aim: Putin's return to the Kremlin.''

Putin, a former KGB colonel, sounded very much in charge during a speech yesterday to the annual gathering of his ruling United Russia party, vowing to protect Russia from another financial collapse like its 1998 default.

The prime minister last week declined to say whether he planned to run for the presidency next year, calling such talk ``premature.'' Putin stepped down in May after eight years as president because of a constitutional ban on three consecutive terms. Heads of state who serve two terms can return to power after a period out of office.

Full Term

Parliament speaker Boris Gryzlov, a United Russia member and Putin ally, dismissed speculation that Medvedev would resign. ``Those who are elected should serve their full term,'' he said Nov. 14.

The guessing game about a Putin comeback began on Nov. 5, when Medvedev announced that presidential terms would be extended from four to six years. The constitutional amendment, which won approval in the lower house of parliament today by 392 to 57 votes, is likely to be in place in December.

Communist Party lawmakers condemned the move, suggesting it was a ploy to cement Putin's rule.

``Was this a personal initiative of the president, or did someone put him up to it?'' Communist legislator Vladimir Fedotkin said in a Nov. 14 debate.

Falling Oil Prices

The chatter about a Putin return has increased as the price of oil, Russia's main export earner, falls, the ruble weakens and central bank reserves shrink. Crude oil fell below $49 a barrel in New York yesterday for the first time since May 2005 as a recession in the U.S., Europe and Japan cut global energy demand.

``If Medvedev fails to cope with a worsening crisis, Putin will come back as president,'' said Sergei Markov, a United Russia lawmaker whose Moscow-based Institute of Political Studies advises the Kremlin.

In another move that some observers said hints at a comeback, Putin's office on Nov. 18 announced plans to hold a televised call-in show next month, resuming an annual tradition he began during his presidency. Those events lasted several hours and dominated news coverage. The new show may provide Putin with a platform for an election campaign, said Leonid Sedov, an analyst at the Levada Center research group in Moscow.

On paper, Medvedev has wide constitutional powers including the right to sack the prime minister, whose job is to implement the president's policies.

`A Step Ahead'

``Putin and his circle, it seems, are aware of the seriousness of the crisis that Russia might face next year when the financial turmoil hits home hard,'' opposition politician Vladimir Ryzhkov said in a commentary. Putin may try to ``keep a step ahead of the game'' by seeking election as president as early as March.

Those betting on Putin's return point to Medvedev's limited power base. Because the president owes his position to the prime minister and remains surrounded by his allies, Medvedev ``doesn't yet have enough support to oppose Putin's wishes,'' said the Levada Center's Sedov.

Foreign investors, who welcomed Medvedev's promises of enforcing the rule of law and fighting corruption, would rather not have another 12 years of Putin, said James Beadle, chief investment strategist at Pilgrim Asset Management in Moscow.

`It would be a significant negative because there's already a strong sense that the forces in charge in Russia are more interested in holding onto power than anything else and his return would reflect that,'' Beadle said.

Power Base

Not everyone is convinced that Medvedev won't serve out his term. In time, he could build up his power base, said Igor Yurgens, an adviser to the president who heads the Institute of Contemporary Development in Moscow.

He said Medvedev already has ``respect'' from Western leaders. If Russia weathers the economic storm, he added, it will strengthen him and like-minded officials who favor the free market and foreign investment.

``They stand a chance of reinforcing their political position for years to come,'' he said.

People who disagree with that analysis say Putin may not allow that to happen.

``Putin will return to power because he'll believe that he is the only person with sufficient credibility and ability to take the country through whatever happens,'' Beadle said. ``So he'll justify it to himself in the sense that's he's doing it for Russia, and he'll probably believe it himself.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Henry Meyer in Moscow at hmeyer4@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: November 21, 2008 04:58 EST