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General Dynamics, Harris, L-3 Gain Most From Iraq War (Update1)

By Edmond Lococo

March 25 (Bloomberg) -- General Dynamics Corp., Harris Corp. and L-3 Communications Holdings Inc. benefited most among the Pentagon's 25 largest military suppliers from five years of conflict in Iraq, based on a combination of war-related sales and stock gains.

General Dynamics and Harris, the Melbourne, Florida-based maker of combat radios, both tripled in stock price in the five years ended March 20, the anniversary of the war's start. L-3, which provides translators, rose 164 percent. Their gains beat the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index, which rose 52 percent, and the S&P Aerospace and Defense Index, which more than doubled.

The U.S. has begun reducing troops in Iraq, a process that may accelerate next year and threaten revenue of companies that gained the most from the war. Heavy combat use of vehicles and equipment still will trigger years of replacement sales. War costs are about $12 billion a month, the Pentagon said Jan. 28.

``The war has been a huge benefit to almost all contractors,'' said William Hartung, director of the arms and security initiative at the New America Foundation in New York. ``Ammunition, armor, vehicles, communications are places where there's a lot of spending now, and they will have to repair or replace much of it when the war ends.''

Congress has approved about $700 billion for conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan since the 2001 terror attacks, the Congressional Research Service says. That's on top of the regular defense budget, which is $480 billion this year.

Pulling Back

The U.S. is pulling five of 20 combat brigades out of Iraq through July. The pace next year may be set by the winner of November's U.S. presidential election, a showdown between presumptive Republican nominee John McCain, an Arizona senator, and either Senate colleague Barack Obama of Illinois or Hillary Clinton of New York for the Democrats.

General Dynamics benefited from funding to buy Abrams tanks, Stryker troop transports, and ammunition. The company had about $2.35 billion in war revenue last year, the most among U.S. defense companies, based on estimates by Joseph Nadol, an analyst with JP Morgan Securities Inc. in New York. At about 9 percent of sales, it was second to Harris by percentage.

Spokesman Robert Doolittle of Falls Church, Virginia-based General Dynamics declined to confirm the data. ``We don't track orders, revenue or income based on where it's going,'' he said.

General Dynamics rose to fourth on the Pentagon's list of prime contractors in 2006, with $10.5 billion in work, from fifth in 2002 at $6.96 billion. The list excludes money received as a subcontractor. Data for 2007 isn't available yet.

``General Dynamics' business would not be nearly as robust without the war,'' Cai Von Rumohr, a Boston-based analyst with Cowen & Co., said in an interview.

Harris

Harris received an estimated $600 million of war-related sales last year, or about 13 percent of its total, Nadol said. That was the largest proportion among major defense companies.

Harris became the Pentagon's 25th-largest supplier in 2006, with $1.34 billion in prime contracts, from 48th in 2002.

``There has been some benefit from Iraq, but our future is not tied to Iraq or levels of troop deployment, or whether the war is coming to an end,'' Chief Financial Officer Gary McArthur said in an interview. He said he was unable to provide a figure for how much annual revenue Harris has received from the war.

Harris makes Falcon II radios, which can be mounted in vehicles or carried by soldiers. The radios also can carry data and video as part of an upgrade program that may cost as much as $30 billion, McArthur said.

``The whole need to modernize is not dependent on levels of troops in, or not in, Iraq,'' the executive said.

Analyst Nadol has doubts. ``A combat-vehicle maker like General Dynamics is less exposed than an equipment provider such as Harris'' to a drop in revenue, he said.

L-3

New York-based L-3 benefited through its role as the largest supplier of translation services for the Army in Iraq. L-3 lost the translation contract to a DynCorp International Inc. joint venture and became a subcontractor to the new team March 14.

L-3 had $1.1 billion of war revenue last year, or about 8 percent of its total, Nadol calculated. L-3 estimates Iraq- related revenue at about $1 billion last year and this year, spokeswoman Jennifer Barton said.

The Pentagon's five largest suppliers are Bethesda, Maryland-based Lockheed Martin Corp.; Chicago-based Boeing Co.; Northrop Grumman Corp. in Los Angeles; General Dynamics; and Waltham, Massachusetts-based Raytheon Co. Aside from General Dynamics, Nadol estimates they got 1 percent to 4 percent of 2007 sales from the war.

Northrop, the builder of aircraft carriers, won the least: about $300 million, or 1 percent of 2007 revenue, Nadol said.

``Northrop Grumman would be relatively unaffected by a reduction in supplemental funding for Iraq and Afghanistan or a rapid withdrawal from Iraq because our exposure to the supplemental war funding is small,'' Dan McClain, a Northrop spokesman, said in an e-mail.

General Dynamics fell 35 cents to $85.01 at 4:03 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, and has dropped 4.5 percent so far this year. Harris rose 19 cents to $49.06 and has fallen 22 percent this year. L-3 rose 59 cents to $108.45, and has gained 2.4 percent.

To contact the reporters on this story: Edmond Lococo in Boston at elococo@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: March 25, 2008 16:24 EDT

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