Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Like many Hungarian women her age, Anna Kalmar doesn't see the point of getting married, at least not before she turns 30.

``I want to work now, earn some money,'' says the 25-year- old, stopping at a Budapest cafe on her way from work at a marketing agency. ``I am not in such a rush. Besides, it is just a piece of paper.''

While such talk, Kalmar says, would horrify her Roman Catholic mother, it explains social changes taking place in Hungary. Since 1980, the number of marriages has dropped by 50 percent, a key reason for a continuing decline in the country's fertility rate to an estimated 1.35 children per woman this year -- among the lowest in Europe.

With the fall of communism in 1989, Hungarians, Bulgarians, Poles and other Eastern Europeans have been behaving more like their western neighbors: marrying later, if at all, and having fewer babies. That -- together with mortality rates above the European Union average, higher emigration and virtually no immigration -- is shrinking their populations, feeding national angst.

``The demographic situation in Hungary borders on the catastrophic, threatening our economic sustainability,'' says Miklos Soltesz, 45, a member of Parliament for the Christian Democratic People's Party.

Declining Population

According to projections by Eurostat, Hungary's population may drop 13 percent to 8.7 million in 2060 from 10 million now. The trend is similar across Eastern Europe. The Luxembourg- based statistical agency projects an 18 percent decline, to 83.5 million from 102 million, during the same period in the total population of Hungary, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Romania and the Czech Republic.

In Hungary, where half the populace is nominally Catholic, the concern is that the country will soon lack the labor force it needs to provide for its aging citizens. ``It is an open question whether the economically active can support our pensioners,'' Soltesz says.

The proportion of Hungarians over the age of 65 may double to 31.9 percent by 2060, while the number of people between the ages of 15 and 64 could drop 30 percent to 4.8 million, according to Eurostat.

What has changed since 1989 is the decision by more and more young adults to stay single longer and have children outside of marriage, according to Olga Toth, a senior research fellow at the Institute of Sociology in Budapest.

`Hot Issue'

``It is a very hot issue in Hungary,'' Toth says. ``It is a real shock for society that people are postponing getting married.''

In the 1970s, Hungary averaged 97,000 marriages a year. ``It was very rare for people not to get married,'' Toth says, partly because, under communism, single men and women weren't eligible for state-provided housing. ``Also, staying single was ideologically frowned upon,'' she adds. By 2004, the number of marriages had fallen to 43,000, the sharpest drop in the EU.

Similarly, more than 90 percent of Hungarian children were born to married couples in the 1980s, according to Toth. Now, 34 percent are born out of wedlock, a higher percentage than in neighboring countries, she says.

Nora Mercs, a single 22-year-old hotel clerk who moved to Budapest from the provincial city of Debrecen, says having a family without marriage is considered normal these days, although ``my parents would disagree.''

Single Moms and Dads

The trend toward single mothers and fathers puts Hungary in line with the EU average, where 33.9 percent of children are born outside marriage, according to a study issued this year by the Madrid-based Institute for Family Policies. The institute reported that 50.5 percent of French babies and 55.5 percent of Swedish babies are born to unmarried women.

Csongor Szerdahelyi, press officer for the Hungarian Catholic Bishops' Conference, says that is because ``consumerism, the media's emphasis on gratification, all of this makes people want to live for the present.''

Anita Czinkoczi, a 25-year-old social worker, agrees, saying her friends hesitate before making long-term decisions. ``We are living in a world where opportunities are uncountable,'' she says. ``We don't want to lose anything.''

Single parenthood and late marriages are issues that resonate among Hungary's nationalist politicians, who worry that these choices are putting a strain on the country's ability to reproduce and on its social structures.

`Moral Renaissance'

``A positive image of the family has to be reflected in the classroom, in health-care policy and the media as well,'' Soltesz says. ``We need a moral renaissance.''

Emigration also accounts for Eastern Europe's shrinking population projections, particularly in poorer countries such as Bulgaria and Romania. ``Young people essentially are the ones migrating, so there is a chain reaction,'' says Giampaolo Lanzieri, one of the authors of the Eurostat study.

Hungary can expect a net influx of 993,600 migrants by 2060, according to Eurostat, partly because of expected labor shortages. That still won't compensate for the country's declining birth rate. The Eurostat estimate of 1.35 children per woman this year is down from 1.8 in 1990 and lower than Italy's 1.38 and Spain's 1.39.

``It is a sad situation to see small villages that don't have enough children to keep the kindergartens open,'' says Szerdahelyi of the Catholic Bishops' Conference. ``But I don't think people have babies because it is their patriotic duty.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Celestine Bohlen in Budapest at cbohlen1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: September 8, 2008 18:20 EDT