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Obama’s Billions May Add 4 Points to GDP Growth: Chart of Day

By David Wilson

Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama’s plan for stimulating the economy would add about 4 percentage points to second- and third-quarter growth, according to Michael Feroli, a JPMorgan Chase & Co. economist.

“Tax reductions, which should find their way into consumer spending relatively quickly,” would lift gross domestic product even before most of the planned spending kicks in, Feroli wrote in a report today.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows the amount of “fiscal support” that the proposal would give to GDP through next year, according to JPMorgan. The chart shows tax breaks, transfer payments such as extended jobless benefits, and assistance to state and local governments apart from direct federal spending.

About $140 billion would be offered to households, businesses and municipal governments in this year’s second and third quarters, the report said. The amounts shown in the chart are adjusted for the potential economic effects of each of the plan’s main components.

Obama’s proposal would have little effect on the pace of GDP growth in the fourth quarter and next year, the report said. At that point, “Gradually rising spending on infrastructure and other construction projects is offset by fading support from tax measures and aid to states and localities,” Feroli wrote.

Sixty percent of the federal government’s own spending would occur in next year’s fourth quarter or later, he wrote, citing estimates from the Congressional Budget Office.

To contact the reporter on this story: David Wilson in New York at dwilson@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: February 3, 2009 11:05 EST

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