By Mark Shenk
Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil was little changed near a 19-month low on signs that fuel demand will contract as the global economy slows.
Oil dropped 14 percent in the past two days, as equities declined amid deepening concern the economic slowdown is hurting earnings. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the financial crisis may lead to an extended slump in euro nations. The number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits rose to the highest since 1983, a government report showed.
``There's no good news on the demand front,'' said Chip Hodge, a managing director at MFC Global Investment Management in Boston, who oversees a $4.5 billion energy-company bond portfolio. ``We overshot moving higher and are doing the same moving lower.''
Crude oil for December delivery rose 11 cents to $60.88 a barrel at 10:15 a.m. Sydney time on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices, which have tumbled 59 percent since reaching a record $147.27 on July 11, are down 37 percent from a year ago. Yesterday, oil fell $4.53, or 6.9 percent, to $60.77 a barrel, the lowest settlement since March 21, 2007.
``Prices could easily move into the $50s for a while,'' Hodge said.
The Bank of England cut its benchmark interest rate by 1.5 percentage points yesterday as policy makers tried to contain the damage caused by a recession. ECB officials meeting in Frankfurt reduced the benchmark lending rate by half a percentage point to 3.25 percent, the second cut in less than a month.
`Aggressive Rate Cut'
``The market is trying to process the very aggressive rate cut by the Bank of England, and to a lesser extent the ECB,'' said John Kilduff, senior vice president of risk management at MF Global Inc. in New York. ``We will have to see what kind of impact they will have on demand.''
The International Energy Agency said oil-import prices will rebound to average $100 a barrel between 2008 and 2015 and that the threat of a ``supply crunch'' remains. The IEA cut its world oil-demand estimate for 2030 by 10 million barrels a day, to 106 million barrels a day, because of high prices and slower growth, in a summary of its annual World Energy Outlook yesterday.
The agency raised its forecast for the world's energy investment needs from 2007 through to 2030 by more than $4 trillion to more than $26 trillion.
``The IEA report raises worries about future supply,'' said Bill O'Grady, chief markets strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis. ``The credit crunch and price volatility are starting to have an impact on investment and the development of new fields.''
OPEC Shipments
The Paris-based IEA, which coordinates energy policy in 28 developed countries, was set up in 1974 in response to the Arab oil embargo.
Daily shipments from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to consumers in the U.S. and Europe will decline to their lowest in two years in the four weeks ending Nov. 22 following the group's decision to cut output, industry consultant Oil Movements said.
OPEC members including Algeria, Iran and the United Arab Emirates have said they are implementing the group's Oct. 24 accord to slash output by 1.5 million barrels a day, on top of an earlier resolution to pare excess supplies by about 500,000 barrels a day.
``OPEC members will probably adhere to the new quotas as best they can,'' Hodge said. ``Once there's further evidence about the size of the cuts, we may see the oil market rebound.''
Russia, the world's second biggest oil producer, is working with OPEC on an agreement to coordinate output, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin told reporters yesterday in Caracas. No agreement has been reached yet, and it's too early to discuss details, Sechin said.
Brent crude oil for December settlement declined $4.44 or 7.2 percent, to settle at $57.43 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange, the lowest since Feb. 14, 2007.
To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: November 6, 2008 18:27 EST
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