Jan. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may rise as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries makes record production cuts to counter the deepest economic slump since World War II.

Seven of 14 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 50 percent, said futures will gain through Jan. 9. Five respondents, or 36 percent, forecast oil will fall and two said there will be little change in prices. Last week, 46 percent of analysts said prices would drop.

OPEC pledged on Dec. 17 to reduce production from 11 of its members to 24.845 million barrels a day. The group may meet again before a scheduled March conference if prices keep falling, Venezuelan Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez said on Dec. 23.

“The crude oil market has likely overshot fair value on the downside this time, and the OPEC production cuts should prove effective in steering it higher again in the year ahead,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst with Citi Futures Perspective in New York.

Prices may also increase on concern that supplies from the Middle East may be disrupted because of a conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Crude oil for February delivery rose $8.63, or 23 percent, to $46.34 a barrel this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the biggest one-week increase since 1986. Nymex was shut yesterday because of the New Year. Prices have dropped 69 percent from the record $147.27 a barrel reached on July 11.

The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 49 percent of the time since its start in April 2004.

     Bloomberg’s survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted
each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil
futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming
week. This week the survey was conducted a day earlier than usual
because of the New Year. There were no responses from Asia or
Australia this week. The results were:

                    RISE      NEUTRAL    FALL
                     7          2         5

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: January 2, 2009 16:40 EST