Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. auto sales probably posted their 11th straight monthly decline, the longest slide in 17 years, as new-vehicle orders dwindled for General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC.

September deliveries also probably fell at Toyota Motor Corp., Honda Motor Co. and Nissan Motor Co., which each may have posted declines of at least 20 percent, Wachovia Capital Markets analyst Richard Kwas said in a Sept. 24 report.

The declines underscore how the financial crisis has sapped consumer confidence and forced lenders to toughen loan standards. New vehicles likely sold at an annual rate of 13 million in September, down 17 percent from a year ago, based on a Bloomberg News survey of 36 analysts and economists.

``Tighter credit will play a role in sales for the rest of this year and into next year,'' said Haig Stoddard, a Troy, Michigan-based forecaster for consulting firm Global Insight Inc. ``We don't think sales will rebound until next year.''

When the automakers post results tomorrow, GM likely will say sales dropped 26 percent in September, while Chrysler may post a 34 percent decline, based on the average estimates of five analysts. Ford may say sales slipped 22 percent.

An 11-month streak of declines in vehicle sales would be the longest such stretch since the 14 months that ran through December 1991, according to industry-research firm Autodata Corp. in Woodcliff Lake, New Jersey. Consumer confidence ebbed in the second half of the month, with the Reuters/University of Michigan final index dropping to 70.3, after a reading of 73.1 earlier.

Confidence Ebbing

September had 24 selling days, one fewer than a year earlier. That means some automakers will post unadjusted results about 4 percentage points lower than analysts' adjusted estimates.

An annual sales rate of 13 million for September ``seems right to me,'' Ford worldwide marketing chief Jim Farley told reporters after a Sept. 22 media dinner.

``The first couple of weeks, it was a very stressed industry,'' before a possible sales rebound in the month's second half, he said.

That strain is extending to Asian automakers, which rely less on trucks than their U.S. counterparts and haven't suffered as much from near-record fuel prices. Honda's sales rose 1.7 percent through August and Nissan's gained 1 percent, compared with an 11 percent industrywide decline. Toyota's fell 7.8 percent.

Asian Behavior

``Relative to prior months, weakness appears to be more protracted at the Japanese 3, likely due to deteriorating markets on the U.S. coasts,'' Deutsche Bank analyst Rod Lache in New York wrote in a Sept. 24 report.

Kwas told clients in his note that ``Asian makes (yes, even Honda) will fall double digits.'' Asian-based automakers together ``could realize an estimated 20-40 percent'' decline in September, he wrote.

September's results may reflect a shift in the forces driving the falling sales, as costlier borrowing and tremors in the U.S. financial system displace rising fuel prices.

``Who would have thought we'd witness what has happened?'' Ford sales analyst George Pipas said in an interview this month, referring to the financial meltdown that included the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and the planned sale of Merrill Lynch & Co. to Bank of America Corp.

Rejections Rising

Loan rejections are rising for all categories of U.S. auto buyers, even those with the best credit, CNW Marketing Research said on Sept. 25. Through Sept. 20, 81 percent of applications for the lowest-risk, or prime, loans were approved, down from 91 percent a year earlier, the Bandon, Oregon-based firm said.

``The upheaval in the credit markets increases the likelihood that 2009 industry sales will decline,'' Kwas wrote.

GM Treasurer Walter Borst played down any fallout from the crisis.

``Based on what I've seen to date, it hasn't really impacted sales in September materially,'' he said in a Sept. 24 presentation. The Detroit-based automaker extended ``employee pricing'' discounts for all buyers through this month, after planning a two-week program to end on Sept. 2.

Stuart Schorr, a spokesman for Auburn Hills, Michigan-based Chrysler, declined to comment on September auto sales.

Economic Slump

The weakening U.S. economy, which has lost jobs in each month of 2008, adds to the strain on the industry. September non- farm payrolls likely fell by 105,000, based on 69 economist estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Consumer spending also was weakening even before the credit crisis intensified. The U.S. economy grew at a 2.8 percent annual rate in the second quarter, down from a preliminary estimate of 3.3 percent, the Commerce Department said Sept. 26.

GM's 62 percent slide this year is the steepest among the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. GM gained 94 cents to $9.45 at 4:01 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading while Ford increased $1.03 to $5.20. Stocks rebounded on speculation U.S. lawmakers will salvage a $700 billion bank bailout plan, whose defeat in Congress sank markets yesterday.

GM's 8.375 percent note due July 2033 fell 0.5 cent to 40 cents on the dollar, yielding 21 percent, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. Ford's 7.45 percent note due July 2031 slid 2 cents to 42 cents on the dollar, yielding 18 percent.

The following table provides estimates for car and light- truck sales in the U.S. Estimates for companies are percentage changes from September 2007. Forecasts for the seasonally adjusted annual rate, or SAAR, are in millions of vehicles.

The SAAR average is based on forecasts from six analysts and a survey of 30 economists. The analysts' estimates are based on daily selling rates. September had 24 selling days.

Analyst                   GM       Ford      Chrysler   SAAR

Richard Kwas              -30%     -28%      -35%       12.9
 (Wachovia)
Rod Lache                 -25%     -17%      -35%       12.8
 (Deutsche Bank)
Himanshu Patel            -27%     -25%      -30%       12.9
 (JPMorgan)
Patrick Archambault       -23%     -15%      -33%       13
  (Goldman Sachs)
Itay Michaeli             N/A       N/A       N/A       12.7
   (Citigroup)
Jesse Toprak              -24%     -25%      -37%       N/A
  (Edmunds.com)
Tom Libby                  N/A      N/A       N/A       13
  (J.D. Power)

Bloomberg Economists       N/A      N/A       N/A       13.5
  (Average of 30 estimates)

AVERAGE:                   -26%    -22%       -34%      13

To contact the reporter on this story: Bill Koenig in Southfield, Michigan, at wkoenig@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: September 30, 2008 16:17 EDT