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Companies in U.S. Plan to Hire, Spend Into 2010, Survey Shows

By Carlos Torres

Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) -- For the first time in a year, U.S. companies are planning to boost payrolls and investments, indicating the nascent economic recovery will be sustained into 2010, a private survey showed.

The percentage of businesses expecting to hire staff over the next six months exceeded the share projecting more firings by 4 points, the first positive reading since July 2008, according to figures from the National Association for Business Economics issued today in Washington. The spread in favor of those looking to spend more on new equipment was even larger.

The survey “provides new evidence that the U.S. recovery is under way,” William Strauss, a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago who analyzed the results, said in a statement.

Companies are becoming more optimistic about the future after sales, prices and profit margins all firmed since the previous survey was taken in July, the report showed. The results may mean the worst employment slump since the Great Depression will soon end.

The service-industries group, which includes retailers, health-care providers and hotels and restaurants, had the most positive outlook on employment, followed by finance, insurance and real estate. On net, manufacturers said they planned more job cuts over the next six months, the report showed.

The U.S. economy, the world’s largest, has lost 7.2 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, and unemployment reached a 26-year high of 9.8 percent in September, according to figures from the Labor Department.

More Spending

The share of companies planning to buy more equipment exceeded those anticipating investing less by 16 percentage points, the first positive reading since October 2008, the report from NABE showed. Services again led the advance.

The group’s net figures subtract the percent of respondents reporting falling results from those reporting an increase. A total of 78 members responded to the poll, taken from Oct. 2 to Oct. 12.

The sales gauge improved to a net 23 over the past three months, the first positive reading in five quarters, the report said. The group’s profits measure was greater than zero for the first time in seven quarters.

Since the start of the third-quarter reporting period, 80 percent of the companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index have released better-than-expected results, according to Bloomberg data. There’s not a higher proportion in calculations going back to 1993.

Higher Prices

In addition to cutting costs, one reason for the improvement may be that price increases are starting to become more prevalent as demand improves. Twenty-three percent of the companies surveyed by NABE this month said they raised prices since the prior survey, up from 8 percent in July. Just one out of every 10 said they had to cut what they charged customers, down from two out of 10 three months ago.

All 78 companies polled this month anticipated the economy will expand in 2010, with 73 percent saying the rate of growth will probably be in the 1 percent to 3 percent range. The median estimate of 63 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News this month projected a 2.4 percent growth rate for next year.

To contact the report on this story: Carlos Torres in Washington Ctorres2@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: October 26, 2009 00:01 EDT

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