Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Ford Motor Co. said U.S. auto sales rose in October from a month earlier as the industry probably rebounded from the drop in demand that followed the so-called cash for clunkers program.

“The roller coaster is pretty much over,” Ken Czubay, the U.S. sales chief, told reporters today at Ford’s headquarters in Dearborn, Michigan. “People aren’t all of a sudden popping Champagne corks, but they are feeling on the bubble of being more stable.”

Industrywide October sales of cars and trucks ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 10.3 million, based on the average of 9 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The rate was 10.6 million a year earlier.

Sales at a pace of 10 million or more would make October the first month this year to top that mark without the benefit of the government’s clunkers incentives, which ran from July 27 through Aug. 24. September deliveries slumped after the U.S. rebates drained demand and depleted dealers’ inventory.

“Industry sales of light vehicles appear to have continued their steady recovery since the post-clunkers trough of last month, benefiting from improved vehicle availability, and from higher incentive spending and marketing activity by the automakers,” Brian Johnson, a Chicago-based analyst with Barclays Capital, said in a note to investors Oct. 28.

Ford ‘Pleased’

While Czubay didn’t project Ford’s results for the month, he said the second-largest U.S. automaker was “pleased” with its performance and that it was still “too close to call” whether sales would rise from a year earlier.

“We are getting back to sequential business improvements,” Czubay said. Ford will join the rest of the industry in reporting October sales on Nov. 3.

The $787 billion stimulus Congress passed in February is starting to boost economic activity, Czubay said.

“Shovels are in the ground and wheels are moving things around America,” Czubay said. “We’re starting to see that sort of activity take hold.”

Before a 5.1 percent drop in September, Ford posted U.S. sales gains in July and August, powered by consumer demand for the clunkers cash. That was the first time that Ford, General Motors Co. or Chrysler Group LLC increased deliveries for two or more months since GM’s August-October streak in 2007.

Small-Car Interest

Falling fuel prices have not damped interest in small cars, George Pipas, a Ford sales analyst, said today.

Regular unleaded gasoline prices in the U.S. averaged $2.20 per gallon in the first nine months of the year, up 35 cents from the average price in 2004, he said. Yet small cars accounted for more than 21 percent of U.S. auto sales through September, compared with their 14 percent share of the market five years ago, he said.

“People know it’s possible now to pay $4 for a gallon of gas and that volatility makes you feel uncomfortable and vulnerable,” said Pipas, who added that Ford still expects fuel prices to rise. “People are migrating to smaller vehicles.”

Ford shares fell 30 cents, or 4.1 percent, to $7.00 today in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Shares have more than tripled this year.

GM may post the biggest monthly sales gain of the largest six automakers in October with a 4.6 percent rise, according to seven analysts. Ford Motor Co. may fall 4.4 percent and Chrysler Group LLC may drop 29 percent.

Nissan Motor Co. sales probably rose 3.2 percent in the month, the average of three analysts’ projections, while Toyota Motor Corp. fell 6.9 percent and Honda Motor Co. dropped 5.6 percent.

Hyundai Motor Co., which has steadily gained market share from competitors throughout the year, may increase 33 percent for the month, according to market-research firm Edmunds.com.

     The following table provides estimates for car and light-
truck sales in the U.S. Estimates for companies are a percentage
change from October 2008. Forecasts for the seasonally adjusted
annual rate, or SAAR, are in millions of vehicles.
     The estimates are based on daily selling rates. October had
28 selling days, one more than 2008.

                         GM        Ford        Chrysler  SAAR


Patrick Archambault      -3%        -6%        -28%      10.0
(Goldman Sachs)
Joseph Barker            NA         NA         NA        10.4
(CSM Worldwide)
Jessica Caldwell         2%         -6.9%      -34%      10.35
(Edmunds.com)
Christopher Ceraso       6%         -5%        -27%      10.45
(Credit Suisse)
Gary Dilts               NA         NA         NA        10.3
(J.D. Power)
Christopher Hopson       4.5%       0%         -29%      10.1
(IHS Global Insight)
Brian Johnson            5%         -8%        -29%      10.5
(Barclays Capital)
Rod Lache                16%        0%         -30%      10.7
(Deutsche Bank)
Himanshu Patel           2%         -5%        -28%      10.0
(JPMorgan Chase)

Average                  4.6%       -4.4%      -29%      10.3

To contact the reporters on this story: Keith Naughton in Dearborn, Michigan at Knaughton3@bloomberg.net; Alex Ortolani in Southfield, Michigan, at aortolani1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: October 30, 2009 17:42 EDT