Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economic recovery will be stronger than most forecasters anticipate, with job growth coming back faster, said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.

LaVorgna, in an interview today with Bloomberg Radio in New York, predicted the economy will expand at an average 4 percent pace next year, compared with about 2.6 percent forecast by economists surveyed by Bloomberg this month. The jobless rate will fall from October’s 26-year-high of 10.2 percent, he said.

“Any time the economy is growing at least 3 percent for two quarters in a row, you always get job growth,” he said.

The economy expanded at a 3.5 percent annual pace in the third quarter, and economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast it will grow 3 percent in the final three months of this year. The economy shrank in the four quarters ending in June, marking the worst recession since the 1930s.

A report from the Commerce Department today indicated that consumer demand is picking up. Retail sales rebounded more than anticipated last month as demand for autos climbed, easing concern households will curtail spending after government incentives ended.

The 1.4 percent increase followed a 2.3 percent drop in the prior month that was larger than previously estimated. Purchases excluding autos rose less than forecast.

New York Factories

Manufacturing in the New York region expanded in November for a fourth straight month, according to a separate report today from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The New York Fed’s general economic index fell to 23.5 from 34.6, the highest since mid-2004. Readings above zero signal expansion in manufacturing.

Payrolls fell by 190,000 last month, more than forecast by economists, a Labor Department report showed on Nov. 6. The jobless rate rose from 9.8 percent in September. Factory payrolls dropped by the most in four months, and the average workweek held at a record low.

To contact the reporters on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net; Thomas R. Keene in New York tkeene@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: November 16, 2009 09:11 EST