By Gopal Ratnam and Andrea Rothman
June 23 (Bloomberg) -- Boeing Co. said the 787 Dreamliner, already two years behind schedule, will miss its June 30 first- flight target and a new delivery timetable won’t be available for weeks. Boeing shares fell the most since November.
Monitors on the body above the wing showed stresses beyond what models predicted and there was little point flying in a reduced test pattern, Scott Carson, Chicago-based Boeing’s top commercial-plane executive, said on a conference call today.
The 787 was planned for delivery in next year’s first quarter and a delay will be the fifth for Boeing, which has lost more than half its market value since the first postponement in October 2007. Carson had said June 16 at the Paris Air Show the “airplane could fly today” and reiterated the plan to fly by month’s end. Boeing knew about the issue then and didn’t decide until June 19 to scrub the flight, he said today.
“We had been through preliminary analysis of data and were of the mind that we could enter flight test with minor modifications,” Carson said on the call. After the development team’s work narrowed the flight pattern, “we made the call to delay the process.”
Boeing fell $3.03, or 6.5 percent, to $43.87 at 4:15 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the most since Nov. 6. The company trails only Toulouse, France-based Airbus SAS in commercial-jet making.
Delivery Delays
“The delay will probably lead to at least several months of push-out on first delivery,” J.B. Groh, an analyst at DA Davidson & Co. in Lake Oswego, Oregon, said in an interview. “The best-case scenario for first delivery may be mid-2010.” He has a “neutral” rating on the stock.
The 250-seat Dreamliner is Boeing’s fastest-selling model based on its 865 orders. It’s also the first airliner to have a fuselage and wings built mainly of composite plastics, making it lighter than traditional aluminum planes. Boeing has blamed disruptions in the 787 development on parts shortages, defects, redesigns and problems with suppliers.
Boeing said today that engineers conducting its ground tests found stresses exceeded the computer models in 36 spots -- 18 on each side -- along the body above the wing. Each area is about 1 to 2 square inches, Scott Fancher, general manager of the 787 program, said on today’s conference call.
The affected areas are made up of titanium, aluminum and composite material, Fancher said. The fix will involve a “relatively small number of parts and a relatively simple modification” and will not add weight to the aircraft, he said.
Separation in Composites
An ultrasonic inspection detected “small areas, as small as 1 to 2 inches, where we saw a slight separation of composite layers within the part,” Boeing spokeswoman Yvonne Leach wrote in an e-mail.
Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. makes the composite wings and Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd. makes parts of the fuselage that attach to wings. The affected sections include parts made by both the companies and Boeing, Fancher said. All three companies are working on a solution, he said.
A new timetable for the flight will come “in the next several weeks,” Fancher said.
The first flight would have been the start of a months-long process of testing and certification to meet a goal of entering service in the first quarter of 2010. Boeing started telling customers about the delay last night, Carson said.
Customers Notified
Japan’s All Nippon Airways Co. was planning to take delivery of the first 787 in February. “We’re disappointed on the delay,” said Rob Henderson, a Tokyo-based spokesman for All Nippon. “We urge Boeing to let us know the new schedule as soon as possible.”
Continental Airlines Inc., based in Houston, has 25 787s on order and said it was disappointed.
“We remain committed to the 787 and continue to believe that it will be a game changer when it comes on the scene,” Continental spokeswoman Julie King said in an interview. The company has two Boeing 777s scheduled for delivery next year that will help fill the gap, she said.
Delta Air Lines Inc., the world’s largest carrier after buying Northwest Airlines, hasn’t made any changes to its 787 orders and is “in regular communication with them regarding our aircraft delivery schedule,” Betsy Talton, a spokeswoman for the Atlanta-based carrier, said in an e-mail message.
Delta’s Northwest unit has 18 of the 787s on order and options on 18 more, according to its most recent annual report. The first deliveries are scheduled for 2013, the filing said.
Airbus A350
During the two-year delay in the plane’s development, larger rival Airbus SAS has gained ground with 483 orders for its competing A350 airplane, which is due to enter service in 2013.
The 787 will use the lightweight materials and most extensive electrical system yet to help save on fuel. Boeing says the plane will cut fuel consumption by 20 percent compared with existing models.
Carson said there’s no cost estimate yet for the repairs or delay, though the cost of the parts themselves will be minimal. Boeing will revise its financial guidance in its second-quarter earnings report in July, the company said in today’s statement.
Standard & Poor’s reduced its 2009 profit estimate for Boeing by 10 cents to $4.50 a share and to $4.45 in 2010.
“We view it as disappointing that first flight will be delayed again,” Richard Tortoriello, an S&P analyst in New York, wrote in a note to clients. The average estimate of 24 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg is for profit of $4.62 a share this year and $4.52 in 2010.
To contact the reporters on this story: Gopal Ratnam in Washington at gratnam1@bloomberg.net; Susanna Ray in Seattle at sray7@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: June 23, 2009 16:41 EDT
HOME
