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Retail Sales Top Projections on Springtime Inventory (Update3)

By Allison Abell Schwartz

March 5 (Bloomberg) -- Wal-Mart Stores Inc., TJX Cos. and Aeropostale Inc. reported better February sales than anticipated as spring merchandise drew bargain-hungry shoppers back to stores.

Sales at U.S. stores open at least a year rose 5.1 percent at Wal-Mart, the world’s largest retailer said today. That outpaced its quarterly forecast of 1 percent to 3 percent growth. Aeropostale reported an 11 percent rise, higher than the 6.9 percent estimate in a survey by Retail Metrics Inc. Sales at TJX, which runs the TJ Maxx chain, were unchanged, better than an estimated 2.1 percent drop.

While new spring inventory and warmer weather brought more people out to shop than the previous month, most retailers still posted sales declines. That suggests continued weakness in consumer spending, according to Retail Metrics President Ken Perkins.

“There was some pent-up demand which drove some better- than-expected sales,” Perkins said today in a telephone interview. “I don’t think though that that’s something that’s going to carry through into March and April.”

Retail Metrics, the Swampscott, Massachusetts-based researcher, said U.S. comparable-store sales rose 0.7 percent in February, better than the 1.1 percent decline analysts had estimated and the first positive result since September. The outcome was helped mostly by Wal-Mart, Perkins said.

Cheaper gasoline has had more shoppers driving to Wal-Mart, where they’re buying food, televisions and other products for entertaining at home, said Eduardo Castro-Wright, the Bentonville, Arkansas-based retailer’s head of U.S. stores.

‘Financial Responsibility’

“You’ve got a trend toward financial responsibility,” Castro-Wright said in an interview Feb. 26. “It’s almost like a significant percentage of consumers realize that they might have been living beyond their real means.”

Wal-Mart, which raised its annual dividend 15 percent today, climbed $1.26, or 2.6 percent, to $49.75 at 4:11 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.

Costco Wholesale Corp., the biggest U.S. warehouse club, said yesterday that February same-store sales in the U.S. rose 4 percent, excluding gasoline and currency conversions. Wal-Mart’s Sam’s Club, the second-largest warehouse outlet, said sales excluding fuel increased 5.9 percent. No. 3 chain BJ’s Wholesale Inc. posted an 8.2 percent gain, leaving out gasoline.

U.S. consumer spending fell in the last six months of 2008 as unemployment approached its highest level in 16 years, according to the Commerce Department.

Looking to March

March same-store sales may drop as much as 1 percent, Mike Niemira, chief economist at the New York-based International Council of Shopping Centers, said today in an interview. Perkins said the shift of Easter to April 12 this year from March 23 in 2008 will negatively impact March sales as shoppers postpone holiday purchases.

Economists forecast the Labor Department will report tomorrow that U.S. payrolls fell by 650,000 in February, the most since 1949, according to a Bloomberg News survey. The unemployment rate probably surged to 7.9 percent.

“This is all going to continue to weigh on consumer spending,” Perkins said.

‘Value-Price Leader’

Aeropostale wasn’t the only clothing retailer to outpace predictions. Sales at Limited Brands Inc., owner of the Victoria’s Secret chain, dropped 7 percent, better than the 7.6 percent average decline estimated by analysts. Gap Inc., the largest U.S. apparel chain, said February sales slid 12 percent, beating the estimated 15.4 percent decline.

“Aeropostale is the value-price leader right now,” said Brian Sozzi, an analyst at research firm Wall Street Strategies in New York. “I would think they’re going to have continued strong sales heading into the spring.”

Sales suffered at department stores, which have had to slash prices on perfume, handbags, shoes and clothes to attract budget-conscious consumers. Department stores have a larger assortment of goods and generally have to discount more than specialty stores, according to Sozzi.

Macy’s Inc.’s sales dropped 8.5 percent, more than the 7.8 percent estimated drop. Dillard’s Inc. posted a 13 percent decline after analysts predicted a 9.3 percent slide. Nordstrom Inc. retreated 15.4 percent, more than the 13.6 percent analysts expected.

Luxury department stores have also turned to discounting to clear inventory. Saks Inc. said sales plummeted 26 percent. Analysts estimated a 20.7 percent decrease. Neiman Marcus Group Inc.’s sales sank 21 percent. Results were weak in all regions and in all merchandise categories, the retailer said.

Confidence Plunges

Confidence among U.S. consumers plunged to a new low last month, signaling spending will slump further. The Conference Board’s index declined more than forecast to 25 in February, the lowest level since the data began being reported in 1967. January’s reading was 37.4, the New York-based research group said Feb. 24.

Retailers continue to cut prices. Aeropostale is selling two $29.50 polo shirts for the price of one. American Eagle Outfitter Inc. is taking 15 percent off all items, and Talbots Inc. is offering as much as 70 percent off spring merchandise.

“If it’s a discretionary purchase, it’s got to be priced right, right now, and almost has to be on sale for consumers to buy it,” Perkins said. “That is the mindset right now.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Allison Abell Schwartz in New York at aabell@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: March 5, 2009 16:18 EST

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