By Bob Willis
July 1 (Bloomberg) -- Employers in the U.S. last month announced the fewest job cuts in more than a year, a sign payrolls may be stabilizing, according to a private report.
Planned firings fell 9 percent to 74,393 from 81,755 in June 2008, Chicago-based placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. said today. Government agencies and companies in the automotive, transportation and industrial-goods industries announced the biggest cutbacks.
“It appears that many employers have reached the staffing levels they need to make it through the recession,” John A. Challenger, chief executive officer of the placement company, said in a statement. Still, “it could be several more months before we see hiring make a comeback.”
Today’s report showed job-loss announcements dropping from a year earlier for the first time since February 2008. The slowing rate of payroll cuts provides more evidence that the worst of the recession has passed. Still, bankruptcies at General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC may usher in more losses as auto plants, suppliers and dealers slow operations or close.
A government report tomorrow may show payrolls fell by 363,000 in June, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That would follow the prior month’s decline of 345,000 and mark the first back-to-back losses of fewer than 400,000 since September-October.
The unemployment rate, already at a 25-year high of 9.4 percent, probably jumped to 9.6 percent, according to the survey.
Postwar Record
The economy has lost about 6 million jobs since the slump began in December 2007, marking the biggest employment drop in any postwar economic downturn. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg this month forecast the economy will return to expansion in the second half of the year.
On a month-to-month basis, job cuts fell 33 percent from May, declining for a fifth straight month since reaching a peak of 241,749 in January, the Challenger report showed. The figures aren’t adjusted for seasonal effects, so economists prefer to focus on year-over-year changes.
Government and non-profit agencies accounted for 19,438 announced firings last month, as local administrations cut staff and scaled back services.
“States and local municipalities are running significant budget deficits and have no option but to keep making cutbacks,” Challenger said. “Even after an injection of federal stimulus money, many states will still be in the red.”
Auto Industry
The automotive industry announced 7,882 job cuts, capping a total of 119,496 so far this year, Challenger said. Detroit- based GM, seeking to reorganize itself as a smaller, more competitive company, said June 1 it would permanently close 11 factories and put three others on standby status.
Companies in the transportation industry, coping with falling demand because of the recession, announced 5,587 job cuts in June.
UAL Corp.’s United Airlines plans to eliminate 600 more flight attendant jobs on top of 1,550 cut last year, spokeswoman Megan McCarthy said June 22 in an e-mailed statement.
The Challenger report on firings does not always correlate with figures on payrolls or first-time jobless claims as reported by the government.
Many job cuts are carried out through attrition or early retirement. Some employees whose jobs are eliminated find work elsewhere in their companies, and many announced staff reductions never take place because business improvements.
Challenger’s totals also include foreign affiliates.
To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington bwillis@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: July 1, 2009 07:30 EDT
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