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Palin Pick Shows Lost Clout of Republicans' Old Establishment

By Laura Litvan

Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- At a Tuesday reception for moderate Republicans, Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter hushed the cocktail chatter when he began ticking off a long list of like- minded lawmakers who no longer hold office.

``Today, we're in a phone booth,'' Specter said.

To conservatives at the Republican National Convention this week, John McCain's choice of running mate Sarah Palin represented recognition of their clout. For remnants of the party's once-powerful Eastern Establishment, the Minnesota meeting signified a lost opportunity to prod their party toward the political center.

McCain's selection of the anti-abortion, socially conservative Alaska governor, after he considered naming an abortion-rights backer such as former Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge or independent Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, leaves pro-choice Republicans at odds with both the presidential ticket and the party's platform.

``There was shock'' over Palin's selection, said Jennifer Stockman, co-chairwoman of Republican Majority for Choice. ``We were looking for someone who would be transformative and take control of the party away from the social conservatives.''

Addressing the pro-choice group, Specter slammed anti-tax crusaders who tried to unseat him four years ago, and criticized a Republican platform that would ban abortions in all circumstances, including rape, incest, or pregnancies that threaten a mother's life.

Once-Dominant Establishment

Specter, a 28-year Senate veteran, is the product of a once-dominant faction of East Coast moderates that produced such presidential candidates as Thomas E. Dewey and Dwight Eisenhower. That old party establishment has been in retreat since the rise of Sun Belt conservatives like Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush.

Some Republican candidates in areas of growing Democratic strength, such as incumbent U.S. Representative Mike Castle of Delaware, say McCain needs to show more independence from the unpopular Bush and the party's conservative wing. While saluting Palin's achievement as the first woman on a Republican ticket, Castle said he wanted McCain to pick Ridge, the pro-choice former Pennsylvania governor.

``I would have loved to see them pick Tom Ridge,'' Castle said. ``He's a neighbor and a friend, and his social beliefs are more aligned with my own.''

War and Economy

Former New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman, who also would have preferred Ridge, said she is willing to set aside differences on social policy because she doesn't think McCain would infringe on abortion rights if elected.

``On social issues, I'm not going to agree, but those aren't the most important issues this year,'' Whitman said. ``From what I know of John McCain, those issues aren't going to be his primary issues. It's the war and the economy.''

McCain's surprise selection of the 44-year-old Palin was clearly aimed at firing up the Republican Party's core of social conservatives, said Julian Zelizer, a history professor at Princeton University.

``In an election where everyone was talking about the return of moderates, this is a clear move to the right,'' Zelizer said. ``This is not a Joe Lieberman choice.''

There are abundant signs of the shrinking status of Republican moderates. After Democrats picked up 30 U.S. House seats two years ago, 29 House Republicans decided to retire before this year's election -- including senior moderates such as Ohio's Ralph Regula, who served 18 terms, Deborah Pryce, an eight-term lawmaker from Ohio, and Ray LaHood, elected seven times from Illinois. Moderates Chuck Hagel of Nebraska and John Warner of Virginia are among five Republican senators retiring from Congress this year.

Convention No-Shows

Dozens of Republicans in close Senate and House races decided to stay home and campaign rather than attend the party's nominating convention in St. Paul, Minnesota. Senators John Sununu of New Hampshire, Susan Collins of Maine, and Gordon Smith of Oregon are among the no-shows.

Last week, former Iowa Republican Representative Jim Leach, who was defeated in 2006, took the Democratic National Convention stage in Denver and called Barack Obama a ``transcending candidate'' who would make the best president.

Gallup Inc.'s tracking polls show that McCain's support grew among white Republican women after Palin joined the ticket on Aug. 29. The Alaska governor, though, hasn't boosted McCain's standing with independent white women, a swing group that had been split almost equally among the presidential contenders.

Women Voters

Nine out of 10 white Republican women supported McCain in Gallup interviews from Aug. 29 to Sept. 1, up from 85 percent of those questioned during the preceding four weeks.

While McCain led slightly among white independent women between Aug. 1 and Aug. 28, Obama jumped to a 46-39 percent lead in that group during the Aug. 29-Sept. 1 survey.

Representative Tom Davis, a Virginia Republican, says Republican moderates are embracing the ticket, in large part because McCain has a history of voting with moderates on issues.

``We're realistic enough to know that McCain is our guy,'' Davis said.

Palin also brings to the ticket a reputation for reform in Alaska politics, which may appeal to voters in moderate districts and states, Davis said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Laura Litvan in St. Paul, Minnesota, at llitvan@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: September 4, 2008 00:01 EDT

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