Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Online bettors are evenly divided over whether New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine will win re- election tomorrow, while favoring Republican Bob McDonnell to become the next governor of Virginia and Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman to win a vacant U.S. House seat in New York, according to Dublin-based Intrade.

Bets that Democrat Corzine, 62, will get a new term traded at 48.5 as of 2:10 p.m. today, meaning that the online exchange puts his chances of being re-elected at 48.5 percent. Bets that Republican nominee Christopher Christie, 47, would win traded at 49.

“Corzine seems to be a very unpopular governor but Christie hasn’t been convincing in his campaign,” said Carl Wolfenden, Intrade’s exchange operations manager.

A Hamden, Connecticut-based Quinnipiac University poll released today gave former U.S. Attorney Christie a 42 percent to 40 percent edge over Corzine, within the survey’s margin of error of 2.5 percentage points. Independent Christopher Daggett had 12 percent. The poll was taken Oct. 27-Nov. 1.

Intrade bettors rate McDonnell, 54, the former state attorney general, as having a 97 percent chance of winning election tomorrow and ending Democrats’ eight-year hold on Virginia’s governorship. He is running against state Senator Creigh Deeds, 51. An Oct. 22-25 Washington Post poll gave McDonnell a 55 percent to 44 percent lead.

Hoffman’s Chances

In New York, Hoffman has a 70 percent chance of winning tomorrow’s special election to succeed Republican John McHugh, who became secretary of the Army, according to Intrade. Over the weekend, the Republican nominee in the race, Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, dropped out and endorsed Democratic nominee Bill Owens.

“A lot of money has come along in the last few days,” Wolfenden said. “A lot of traders are attracted to something different.”

A Loudonville, New York-based Siena College survey out today gave Hoffman a 41 percent to 36 percent lead over Owens, with a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

Outside groups have outspent the candidates in the race, with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spending $1.1 million to try to elect Owens and the Washington-based anti-tax Club for Growth spending $340,000 for Hoffman, Federal Election Commission reports show.

Palin, Pawlenty

Several prominent Republicans endorsed Hoffman, including former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty and former House Majority Leader Dick Armey of Texas. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia and current House Republican leader John Boehner of Ohio backed Scozzafava until her withdrawal.

President Barack Obama has campaigned for Corzine and Deeds and helped raise money for Owens. Wolfenden said Obama has had no impact on the traders. Vice President Joe Biden traveled to the New York congressional district today to campaign for Owens.

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, 67, has a 95 percent chance of winning a third term, according to Intrade. Bloomberg, running as the Republican nominee, leads New York City Comptroller William Thompson, 56, the Democratic challenger, by a margin of 50 percent to 38 percent in a Quinnipiac poll out today. Bloomberg is the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg News parent Bloomberg LP.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jonathan D. Salant in Washington at jsalant@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: November 2, 2009 14:52 EST