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Oracle Shares Climb as Forecast Reassures Investors (Update5)

By Rochelle Garner

Dec. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Oracle Corp., the world's largest database software maker, rose the most in 15 months in Nasdaq trading after signaling it can withstand an economic slump.

Oracle gained $1.34, or 6.5 percent, to $22.10 at 4 p.m. New York time in Nasdaq Stock Market trading, the most since September 2006. The stock has advanced 29 percent this year.

The company's software handles essential business tasks, making it harder for customers to curb spending when the economy slows, Chief Executive Officer Larry Ellison said yesterday. Oracle expects third-quarter revenue to rise as much as 23 percent, indicating sales of $5.47 billion. That forecast beat the estimates of analysts in a Bloomberg survey.

``The forecast is very healthy,'' Goldman, Sachs & Co. analyst Sarah Friar said in an interview from San Francisco. She advises buying Oracle shares, which she doesn't own.

Excluding stock-based compensation costs, profit will rise to 29 cents or 30 cents a share in the third quarter, which ends in February, Redwood City, California-based Oracle said. Analysts in the survey had estimated profit of 29 cents a share and sales of $5.2 billion.

Oracle, which competes with SAP AG and International Business Machines Corp., is increasing market share. Ellison, 63, spent $25 billion buying rivals and expanding into new areas over the past three years. The buying spree has given Oracle programs to handle such tasks as regulatory compliance and billing.

Steady Spending

Customers can't delay purchases of these programs, making Oracle more resilient to economic swings than SAP, Ellison said. SAP is the world's biggest maker of business applications.

While technology budgets will rise 8 percent to $3.1 trillion this year, growth will slow to 5.5 percent in 2008, Stamford, Connecticut-based Gartner Inc. said in October. In a survey of 37 companies, 61 percent expected their software budgets to decline or be little changed in 2008, San Francisco- based JMP Securities LLC said this month.

``Because Oracle is growing at the expense of others, this tide can't lift all boats,'' Peter Kuper, an analyst with Morgan Stanley, said in an interview from Boston. He rates the shares overweight and doesn't own them. ``Oracle is outflanking and out- executing almost everyone else.''

Growth Streak

Second-quarter net income rose 35 percent to $1.3 billion, or 25 cents a share. Sales gained 28 percent to $5.31 billion in the period, which ended Nov. 30. It was the seventh straight quarter in which revenue growth topped 20 percent.

Excluding stock-based compensation costs, profit was 31 cents a share, compared with the 27-cent estimate of analysts.

In addition to database products, Oracle sells so-called middleware software, which help different types of programs share information. The company also offers business-management applications for handling such tasks as accounting, merchandising and logistics.

Customers buying new programs must also sign maintenance contracts, the only way they can receive software updates, which fix bugs and add features. The agreements increase in price every year, Friar said.

The company used its $10.3 billion purchase of PeopleSoft Inc. in January 2005 to become the second-biggest maker of business applications, after SAP in Walldorf, Germany. Since then, Oracle has bought 35 more companies, mainly to add business-management applications.

Oracle, traditionally a provider of database software before its expansion spree, trails Microsoft Corp. and IBM in worldwide software sales.

`No Friendly Deal'

In October, BEA Systems Inc. spurned a $6.7 billion bid from Oracle. Buying BEA would add to Oracle's middleware products, helping the company challenge Armonk, New York-based IBM for the lead in the market.

Oracle said yesterday it has been in contact with BEA again in recent weeks.

``No friendly deal can be done with the current BEA board at a price and terms acceptable to Oracle,'' Chief Financial Officer Safra Catz said on a conference call.

Carl Icahn, BEA's largest shareholder, may push for new directors when the San Jose, California-based company holds its shareholders' meeting Feb. 14. He has demanded that investors be allowed to vote on a sale.

``Oracle is still trying to win control, and is hoping for a new board it can deal with,'' Kuper said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Rochelle Garner in San Francisco at rgarner4@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: December 20, 2007 16:31 EST

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