Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. auto sales in September probably fell to the second-lowest pace this year as dealers restocked their lots with cars and trucks after the federal government ended its “cash for clunkers” rebates.

“You can’t sell what you don’t have,” said George Pipas, Ford Motor Co.’s sales analyst. The second-largest U.S. automaker had little inventory of Escape sport-utility vehicles or Fusion or Focus cars, he said. “Since then, sales have improved as we replenished our inventory. It hasn’t improved dramatically, but it has improved.”

The seasonally adjusted annual rate slid to 9.3 million vehicles this month, based on the average of 8 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Only in July and August this year has the industry benchmark exceeded 10 million, a level that Ford and researcher J.D. Power & Associates expect the U.S. to clear for the full year. Automakers report September sales tomorrow.

The industry is coming off an August surge that snapped a streak of monthly sales declines dating to 2007. Buyers responded to the government offer of as much as $4,500 to trade in older, less fuel-efficient cars and trucks.

After the $3 billion U.S. program helped empty dealers’ lots in July and August, customers found few vehicles to choose from and automakers unwilling to offer steep discounts.

Prices paid for General Motors Co., Ford and Chrysler Group LLC vehicles rose by $2,000 on average in the second quarter as automakers slashed production, J.D. Power said. Incentives fell by 26 percent from March to August, according to Autodata Corp.

‘Fundamentals’ in Place

Sales will total 10.3 million cars and light trucks this year and rise to 11.5 million in 2010, Westlake Village, California-based J.D. Power estimates. Consumers are gaining confidence and credit is “starting to open up,” said Gary Dilts, senior vice president of global automotive operations at J.D. Power. Annual sales last year were 13.2 million, after averaging 16.8 million this decade through 2007.

The lowest pace this year was 9.11 million, in February. The annual rate is important to the industry because manufacturers, suppliers and dealers use it to compare monthly totals by taking into account seasonal buying patterns.

“We think the fundamentals are in place for improvement in the retail industry,” Dilts said. “The month of September got pushed around pretty hard.”

Sales picked up in the second half of the month, which may be instructive, Brian Johnson, an analyst at Barclays Capital said. “The last two weeks of September could be an important indicator of the underlying rate auto sales are trending at,” he said in a note to clients.

GM, Ford, Chrysler

September sales may fall 44 percent each at Detroit-based GM and Chrysler and 5 percent at Dearborn, Michigan-based Ford, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Those are averages of six estimates for GM and Ford, and five for Auburn Hills, Michigan-based Chrysler.

Sales probably dropped 9.7 percent at Toyota Motor Corp., 13 percent at Honda Motor Co. and 7.1 percent at Nissan Motor Co., according to 2 analysts.

The analysts’ estimates are adjusted for one more sales day this month than in September 2008. Unadjusted figures, used by Bloomberg and some automakers, would be about 4 percentage points lower.

The government’s Car Allowance Rebate System incentives ran from July 27 through Aug. 24. The program produced almost 700,000 sales, according to the Transportation Department.

Late-Month Improvement

Sales improved later in September from early in the month as dealers restocked inventory after the government rebates and automakers offered discounts, said Jessica Caldwell, an industry analyst at Edmunds.com, an automotive-information provider in Santa Monica, California.

Edmunds raised its forecast for September’s annual pace to 9.34 million on Sept. 24, from 8.8 million a week earlier.

Hyundai Motor Co., South Korea’s biggest automaker, may report a 10 percent gain for the month, helped by “high incentives” and programs that guarantee loan payments and gasoline prices, Edmunds said.

Ford fell 24 cents, or 3.2 percent, to $7.21 at 4:01 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares have more than tripled this year.

Ford is closely watching how consumers respond in the beginning of the fourth quarter to see if the economy is picking up, said Pipas, the sales analyst.

“The sales rate we enjoyed for four weeks due to clunkers was not sustainable. The U.S. economy is not there yet,” Pipas said. Because of the dropoff after the clunkers program, “September is not a normal month. Don’t read too much into September because it’s not very instructive for telling you how the fourth quarter is going to turn out.”

Out of Reach

The fourth quarter is unlikely to match the inflated sales of the third quarter, said Caldwell, the Edmunds.com analyst. That means auto sales this year will end up between 10.3 million and 10.5 million, Caldwell said. August is likely to be the only month this year when they exceed 1 million vehicles, she said.

“We’ve only sold a little over 7 million vehicles so far this year,” Caldwell said. “So to get to 11 million we’d have to sell over 1 million a month for the rest of the year and that doesn’t seem likely.”

     The following table provides estimates for car and light-
truck sales in the U.S. Estimates for companies are a percentage
change from September 2008. Forecasts for the seasonally
adjusted annual rate, or SAAR, are in millions of vehicles.
     The SAAR average is based on forecasts from eight analysts.
The estimates are based on daily selling rates. This month has
25 selling days, one more than September 2008.

                         GM        Ford      Chrysler       SAAR

Joseph Amaturo           -40%       -5%        NA            9.5
(Buckingham Research)
Patrick Archambault      -39%       -2%        -45%          9.3
(Goldman Sachs)
Joseph Barker             NA        NA          NA           9.4
(CSM Worldwide)
Jessica Caldwell         -48%       -13%       -51%          9.3
(Edmunds)
Gary Dilts                 NA        NA        NA            9.2
(J.D. Power)
Christopher Hopson       -49%       -1%        -42%          9.3
(IHS Global Insight)
Rod Lache                -47%       -4%        -38%          9.5
(Deutsche Bank)
Himanshu Patel           -40%       -5%        -37%          8.9
(JPMorgan Chase)

Average                  -44%       -5%        -43%          9.3

To contact the reporters on this story: Katie Merx in Southfield, Michigan, at kmerx@bloomberg.net; Keith Naughton in Southfield, Michigan, at Knaughton3@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: September 30, 2009 16:05 EDT