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U.S. Apartment Vacancies Rise on Concern Over Wages (Update1)

By Peter S. Green

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The vacancy rate for U.S. rental apartment buildings rose to 6.1 percent in the third quarter as falling wages and a lack of jobs kept potential renters off the market, Reis Inc. reported.

The average monthly asking rent rose 0.6 percent from the second quarter to $1,053, the 26th consecutive quarter that rents increased or stayed the same, according to Reis, a New York-based research firm.

``There's been a lot of discussion that with all of the things going on with the housing crunch, it would benefit the apartment sector,'' Sam Chandan, chief economist at Reis in New York, said in an interview. ``People are nervous about jobs and wage growth is stagnating.''

Vacancies are rising in part because of a lack of jobs for recent college graduates, Chandan said. The U.S. shed 159,000 jobs in September, the most in five years, according to Labor Department data. The jobless rate, the last one reported before the November presidential election, remained at 6.1 percent. Hours worked reached the lowest level since records began in 1964. Real wages in August fell 2.5 percent from a year earlier, the U.S. Labor Department reported on Sept. 16.

``When wages don't grow, we don't see significant rent growth either,'' Chandan said. The last time U.S. rents fell was the first quarter of 2002, when they declined 0.2 percent, according to Reis.

Sinking Labor Market

``Twenty- to 30-year-olds are about 70 percent renters; they are a key driver for demand,'' said Chandan. ``When they are not finding jobs, they are not renting either. They are more likely to move home with their parents.''

The September jobless data followed a 73,000 decline in August and showed the world's largest economy may be headed for bigger job losses as consumers and companies retrench. A sinking labor market and rising borrowing costs raise the odds Federal Reserve policy makers will cut interest rates by their Oct. 29 meeting.

Rents are rising in some parts of Texas, the Pacific Northwest and Northern California, Chandan said.

``It follows the general economy,'' Chandan. ``The industries in those areas are doing a little better than the mid-Atlantic, Southern California and the Midwest.''

Asking rents grew the most in Tacoma, Washington, in the third quarter from a year earlier, rising 7.3 percent. Seattle rose 7.1 percent, San Francisco increased 6.3 percent and New York City rose 4.6 percent, according to Reis.

Highest Rents

New York had the highest average U.S. rent at $2,855 a month, followed by San Francisco at $1,827; Fairfield County, Connecticut, at $1,764; Boston at $1,660; and Orange County, California, at $1,532, Reis said.

New York had the lowest vacancy rate at 2.0 percent for the quarter, followed by Long Island at 2.8 percent, Central New Jersey at 2.9 percent, San Jose at 3.2 percent and New Haven, Connecticut at 3.2 percent, Reis said.

Large cities with the highest vacancy rates in the third quarter included Memphis at 10.6 percent, Phoenix at 10.0 percent, Houston at 9.5 percent, Fort Worth, Texas at 9.1 percent and Atlanta at 8.9 percent, Reis said.

In Sunbelt markets including Palm Beach, Florida, where the vacancy rate was 8.0 percent, competition for renters from condominiums for rent is keeping rents down and vacancies up, Chandan said in an e-mail accompanying the report.

To contact the reporter on this story: Peter S. Green in New York at psgreen@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: October 6, 2008 10:17 EDT