SYMBOL LOOKUP
HOME
By Bob Willis
Sept. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of existing U.S. homes probably climbed in August to the highest level in two years, another sign the real-estate collapse that triggered the global recession is abating, economists said before a report today.
Purchases rose 2.1 percent to a 5.35 million annual rate, according to the median forecast of 74 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. It would be the fifth consecutive gain, capping the longest stretch of increases since 2004.
Government tax credits for first-time buyers and foreclosure-induced price declines are helping the housing market recover from the worst slump since the Great Depression. Federal Reserve policy makers yesterday committed to keeping interest rates low to ensure the pickup in growth is sustained.
“The housing recovery is under way,” said Michelle Meyer, an economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. “While the first-time homebuyer tax credit likely boosted sales, there has been a fundamental shift in home buying due to greater affordability and confidence.”
The National Association of Realtors’ report is due at 10 a.m. in Washington. Bloomberg survey estimates ranged from 5.1 million to 5.55 million after a 5.24 million rate in July. Resales reached a 4.49 million pace in January, their lowest level since comparable records began in 1999.
A report at 8:30 a.m. from the Labor Department is projected to show the number of Americans seeking jobless benefits rose last week to 550,000 from 545,000 a week earlier.
Leading Indicator
Purchases of existing homes, which make up more than 90 percent of the market, are tabulated when sales close and therefore reflect contracts signed a month or two earlier. Sales of newly built residences, which make up the rest, are considered a more leading indicator because they are counted when a contract is signed.
The Commerce Department may report tomorrow that purchases of new houses rose in August to the highest level in 12 months, according to a Bloomberg survey.
Fed policy makers yesterday maintained they will keep the benchmark lending rate near zero “for an extended period,” while noting that the economy and housing had strengthened. They also said they will slow central bank purchases of mortgage debt securities in order to extend the $1.45 trillion program through the first quarter of 2010 rather than completing it by the end of this year.
They extended the period to allow more time “to work out of the housing problems,” John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North, Carolina, said in a report to clients yesterday.
First-Time Buyers
The Obama administration’s $8,000 tax credit for first- time home buyers, which is due to expire at the end of November, combined with the plunge in prices as foreclosures climbed, have helped lift sales this year. The Realtors’ group and the National Association of Home Builders have lobbied to extend the credit on concern demand will wane after it lapses.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told reporters on Sept. 17 that the administration would take a “careful look” at extending the credit and called signs of stabilization in the U.S. housing market “very encouraging.”
Growing demand has prompted builders such as KB Home to get back to work. Housing starts rose to a nine-month high in August, the Commerce Department reported last week, indicating residential construction may soon add to growth after subtracting from gross domestic product since 2006.
Builder Shares
The Standard & Poor’s Homebuilder Supercomposite Index is up 32 percent so far this year, compared with a 17 percent gain for the broader S&P 500.
Prices, which most economists forecast would be the last component of the market to turn, have begun to improve. The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s home-price index for purchases was up 1.1 percent in the three months through July, the best performance since early 2006.
The recent increases may also be contributing to the rise in sales as buyers who had been waiting for prices to turn jump back into the market, economists said.
“We’re seeing a firming of prices in a number of markets, not all,” Eli Broad, founder of Los Angeles-based KB Home, said yesterday in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “I think we have bottomed out in many markets.”
KB Home on Sept. 16 announced it was resuming its building operations in the mid-Atlantic region, including the Washington, D.C., area.
Still, with unemployment forecast to reach 10 percent by the end of the year and record foreclosures adding to the 4.4 million houses on the market, any rebound in sales, construction or prices will take time to strengthen.
“I see this as a very slow recovery,” said Broad. “In some markets the inventory is so large it’s going to take a number of years before we go back to what I call normalcy.”
Bloomberg Survey
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Initial Cont. Exist Exist
Claims Claims Homes Homes
,000’s ,000’s Mlns MOM%
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Date of Release 09/24 09/24 09/24 09/24
Observation Period 19-Sep 12-Sep Aug. Aug.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Median 550 6183 5.35 2.1%
Average 548 6169 5.35 2.0%
High Forecast 565 6250 5.55 5.9%
Low Forecast 510 6100 5.10 -2.7%
Number of Participants 44 14 74 74
Previous 545 6230 5.24 7.2%
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4CAST Ltd. 540 --- 5.30 1.2%
Action Economics 540 6235 5.35 2.1%
Aletti Gestielle SGR 560 --- 5.40 3.1%
Ameriprise Financial Inc --- --- 5.35 2.1%
Argus Research Corp. --- --- 5.20 -0.8%
Banesto 556 --- 5.33 1.7%
Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi 550 --- 5.27 0.6%
Bantleon Bank AG --- --- 5.38 2.7%
Barclays Capital 550 --- 5.32 1.5%
Bayerische Landesbank 550 --- 5.32 1.5%
BBVA 537 6200 5.35 2.1%
BMO Capital Markets 550 --- 5.40 3.1%
BNP Paribas --- --- 5.40 3.1%
Briefing.com 560 6100 5.20 -0.8%
Calyon --- --- 5.39 2.9%
Capital Economics --- --- 5.40 3.1%
CIBC World Markets --- --- 5.40 3.1%
Citi 540 6170 5.40 3.1%
ClearView Economics --- --- 5.30 1.2%
Credit Suisse 530 --- 5.40 3.1%
Daiwa Securities America --- --- 5.40 3.1%
Danske Bank --- --- 5.34 1.9%
DekaBank --- --- 5.40 3.1%
Desjardins Group 550 --- 5.30 1.2%
Deutsche Bank Securities --- --- 5.30 1.2%
DZ Bank --- --- 5.35 2.1%
First Trust Advisors 550 --- 5.26 0.4%
Fortis --- --- 5.25 0.2%
FTN Financial --- --- 5.50 5.0%
Goldman, Sachs & Co. --- --- 5.29 1.0%
Helaba 550 --- 5.27 0.6%
Herrmann Forecasting 542 6200 5.37 2.4%
High Frequency Economics 560 --- 5.40 3.1%
IDEAglobal 535 --- 5.35 2.1%
IHS Global Insight --- --- 5.41 3.2%
Informa Global Markets 540 6190 5.10 -2.7%
ING Financial Markets --- --- 5.40 3.1%
Insight Economics 550 6200 5.35 2.1%
Intesa-SanPaulo --- --- 5.35 2.1%
J.P. Morgan Chase 550 --- 5.35 2.1%
Janney Montgomery Scott L --- --- 5.39 2.9%
Jefferies & Co. 560 --- 5.45 4.0%
Johnson Illington Advisor --- --- 5.30 1.2%
Landesbank Berlin 555 --- 5.25 0.2%
Landesbank BW --- --- 5.30 1.2%
Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc 550 --- --- ---
Merrill Lynch/BAS 510 --- 5.46 4.2%
MFC Global Investment Man 535 6200 5.40 3.1%
Mizuho Securities 560 --- 5.19 -1.0%
Moody’s Economy.com 550 6130 5.38 2.7%
Morgan Stanley & Co. 540 --- 5.40 3.1%
National Bank Financial --- --- 5.40 3.1%
Natixis --- --- 5.30 1.2%
Newedge --- --- 5.34 1.9%
Nomura Securities Intl. --- --- 5.20 -0.8%
Nord/LB 550 --- --- ---
PNC Bank --- --- 5.25 0.2%
Raymond James 550 --- 5.35 2.1%
RBC Capital Markets 546 --- 5.37 2.5%
RBS Securities Inc. 565 --- 5.40 3.1%
Ried, Thunberg & Co. 550 6100 5.40 3.1%
Schneider Foreign Exchang 547 6110 5.42 3.4%
Scotia Capital 560 6250 5.55 5.9%
Societe Generale --- --- 5.40 3.1%
Standard Chartered --- --- 5.35 2.1%
Stone & McCarthy Research 555 --- 5.41 3.2%
TD Securities 560 6175 5.35 2.1%
Thomson Reuters/IFR 540 --- 5.35 2.1%
UBS 545 --- 5.40 3.1%
UniCredit Research 540 --- 5.30 1.2%
University of Maryland 540 --- 5.30 1.2%
Wells Fargo & Co. --- --- 5.30 1.2%
WestLB AG --- --- 5.30 1.2%
Westpac Banking Co. 550 --- 5.40 3.0%
Woodley Park Research --- --- 5.30 1.2%
Wrightson Associates 550 6100 5.40 3.1%
===============================================================
To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington bwillis@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: September 24, 2009 00:00 EDT
