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Apple Analysts Say to Buy as IPhone Goes Mainstream (Update3)

By Crayton Harrison and Connie Guglielmo

June 10 (Bloomberg) -- Apple Inc. analysts renewed calls for investors to buy the stock because Chief Executive Officer Steve Jobs is taking the iPhone to mainstream consumers, aiming to win customers from Research In Motion Ltd. and Motorola Inc.

The long-term gains will more than make up for missed estimates for iPhone sales, which may be hurt as customers wait for a new model and Apple makes changes to deals with wireless carriers that limit revenue, Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Jeff Fidacaro said. Apple shares climbed 2.2 percent.

Jobs unveiled a faster iPhone yesterday that will sell for $199, about half as much as the prior model. That will help Apple attract more users in the long run, making up for a possible slowdown as customers delay purchases.

``Apple is now better positioned comparatively on price to gain significant share in the handset market,'' Fidacaro said in a research note.

Apple said yesterday that it sold 700,000 iPhones this quarter before running out of inventory in early May. About 6 million iPhones have been sold in total since the Web-surfing handset went on sale in the U.S. in June 2007, Jobs said.

Fidacaro cut his estimate for iPhone sales by 1.8 million units to 8.6 million for the company's current fiscal year, which ends in September. The New York-based analyst, who recommends buying the shares, said sales in June would be lower than he anticipated because the new device won't debut until July 11.

Shares Climb

Apple rose $4.03 to $185.64 at 4 p.m. New York time in Nasdaq Stock Market trading after dropping 2.2 percent yesterday on concern that iPhone revenue will slump. The shares have declined 6.3 percent this year.

The latest model can download Web pages at twice the speed of the original version, Cupertino, California-based Apple said yesterday. The new price should help Apple win even more customers as it offers the iPhone in additional markets this year, Jobs said yesterday at the company's developers conference.

Apple will begin selling the new iPhone 3G in 22 countries next month, up from six countries today. Distribution will expand to 70 countries in coming months, Jobs said. The 8-gigabyte model will be $199, down from $399. A 16-gigabyte version is $299, down from $499. Both will run on faster third-generation, or 3G, wireless networks.

``The lower prices will enable Apple to drive higher volumes of the new handset in the second half of 2008 and all of 2009,'' Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s David Bailey said in a report yesterday. The New York-based analyst advised buying the shares.

New Strategy

Apple and wireless carriers -- including its exclusive U.S. partner, AT&T Inc. -- are abandoning their previous strategy to share revenue from customers' monthly wireless service plans. Instead, most of the carriers will sell the devices at a loss and make up the cost over the course of the contracts. Apple will get commissions for the devices sold in its stores.

AT&T's iPhone customers must sign a two-year contract for service when they purchase the device. AT&T, the biggest U.S. wireless carrier, won't offer an option for paying in advance on a month-to-month basis, as it does with other devices, company spokesman Mark Siegel said.

``We were never wedded to a business model being a certain way,'' Apple Chief Operating Officer Timothy Cook said in an interview yesterday. He reiterated the company's forecast to sell 10 million iPhones this calendar year. ``What we want to do is make the iPhone more accessible to many more people.''

Analysts differed on estimates for financial arrangements between Apple and its partners. Oppenheimer & Co.'s Yair Reiner said carriers would pay a $400 subsidy for the iPhone, while RBC Capital Markets analyst Mike Abramsky estimated $200.

AT&T Fees

AT&T's payments to Apple in the form of subsidies and commissions may amount to 10 cents to 12 cents a share this year and next, the company said yesterday. That represents about $655 million in fees each year, Citigroup Inc. analyst Michael Rollins said today in a report.

That forecast suggests AT&T's subsidy is $300 to $400, said Toni Sacconaghi of Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. in New York. Sacconaghi, the top-ranked computer analyst by Institutional Investor magazine, said Apple may be receiving a wholesale price of $500 to $700 for each device.

AT&T fell 34 cents to $37.22 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares have dropped 10 percent this year.

Apple and San Antonio-based AT&T declined to disclose the specifics of their agreement yesterday.

To contact the reporters on this story: Crayton Harrison in Dallas at tharrison5@bloomberg.net; Connie Guglielmo in San Francisco at cguglielmo1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: June 10, 2008 16:16 EDT

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