By Margot Habiby
March 21 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil prices may fall next week as the dollar rebounds and the slowing U.S. economy curbs consumption of fuels.
Twenty-nine of 34 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 85 percent, said prices will drop through March 27. Four of the respondents, or 12 percent, said futures will rise and one forecast that prices will be little changed. Last week, 43 percent said oil would decline.
The dollar rose, triggering an exodus from commodities, after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut the overnight-lending rate by 0.75 percent to 2.25 percent on March 18. Total implied fuel demand for the four weeks ended March 14 fell 3.2 percent from a year earlier, according to the Energy Department.
``With the U.S. dollar poised for a comeback, we see potential for an ongoing wave of long liquidation out of the crude oil market,'' said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in New York. Oil supply may be 1.5 million barrels a day over demand in the second quarter, he said.
Energy and metals prices have surged over the past year as the U.S. dollar plunged, prompting investors to seek a hedge against inflation.
U.S. crude-oil stockpiles rose 133,000 barrels last week to 311.8 million barrels in the ninth increase in stockpiles in the past 10 weeks, the Energy Department reported March 19.
Crude oil for May delivery fell $6.90, or 6.4 percent, to $101.84 a barrel this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the first weekly decline in seven. Futures reached $111.80 a barrel on March 17, the highest price since trading began in 1983.
Exchanges in New York and London will be closed for the Good Friday holiday today.
Analysts had forecast that prices would drop for the past 10 weeks. They were correct in three of those weeks. The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of prices 51 percent of the time since its introduction in April 2004.
Bloomberg's survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted
each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil
futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming
week. The results were:
RISE NEUTRAL FALL
4 1 29
To contact the reporter on this story: Margot Habiby in Dallas at mhabiby@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: March 21, 2008 00:14 EDT
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