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Apple Drops After Jobs Ends 11-Year Run at Macworld (Update4)

By Connie Guglielmo and Ian King

Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Apple Inc. fell 6.6 percent in Nasdaq trading after saying Chief Executive Officer Steve Jobs won’t speak at the Macworld Expo next month, ending an 11-year run as the keynote speaker for the annual conference.

Philip Schiller, senior vice president of worldwide product marketing, will fill Jobs’s role, giving the opening address at the conference on Jan. 6 in San Francisco, Apple said yesterday. The company also will skip Macworld entirely after next month.

Jobs’s absence may suggest that Apple has fewer products to introduce or that his health has taken a turn for the worse, said Jim Grossman, an analyst at Thrivent Financial for Lutherans. Jobs, who had successful pancreatic cancer surgery four years ago, appeared thinner at several company events starting in June.

“There’s the conspiracy theories that there are political problems between Apple and the people who hold the conference, or that Steve isn’t feeling up to it,” said Grossman, whose Appleton, Wisconsin-based firm owns Apple shares. “I would prefer them to be more forthright in their strategy, so as an investor I don’t have to worry about which it is.”

Jobs, who co-founded Apple in 1976, returned to the company as CEO in 1997. He revamped the Macintosh computer line with the translucent iMac and pushed Apple into consumer electronics with the iPod. The 53-year-old has given the keynote address at the January Macworld show since his return, using the gathering to introduce products such as the iPhone in 2007 and the ultra-thin MacBook Air notebook in 2008.

Shares Fall

Apple dropped $6.27 to $89.16 at 4 p.m. New York time in Nasdaq Stock Market trading, the biggest one-day decline since Nov. 20. The shares have lost 55 percent this year.

Apple said trade shows have become a minor part of how the company reaches customers and that it has steadily scaled back the events. IDG World Expo, based in Framingham, Massachusetts, has put together Macworld for 25 years. Apple holds its own event, a conference for Mac computer developers, each June, and hosts special events at its Cupertino, California, headquarters or at local venues when Jobs has new products to introduce.

“It doesn’t make sense for us to make a major commitment to a trade show we will no longer be attending,” said Steve Dowling, an Apple spokesman. When asked about Jobs’s health, he said: “If ever Steve or the board decides that Steve is no longer capable of doing his job as CEO of Apple, I am sure they will let you know.”

‘Greatest Salesman’

The 2009 Apple Expo event in Paris has been canceled, the Web site Macworld reported today. Reed Exhibitions, the company listed as hosting the event, didn’t return a call seeking comment.

While product innovation may not change without Jobs, Apple’s marketing power would suffer, said Gene Munster, an analyst at Piper Jaffray & Co. in Minneapolis. Jobs, with his signature black turtleneck and jeans, draws cheers and standing ovations at his speeches. Apple enthusiasts frequently line up days in advance to hear him speak.

Steve Jobs is the world’s greatest salesman, and that’s irreplaceable,” Munster said. “If Steve Jobs is OK, that’s great. The Mac faithful should probably be aware that his role is becoming less.”

Jobs told members of Apple’s board in July that he is cancer-free and was dealing with nutritional problems after his cancer surgery, the New York Times reported at the time, citing people close to Jobs. The company has declined to comment on Jobs’s health, saying it is a private matter.

‘A Concern’

“I’m more concerned about him not doing the keynote than this being the last year at Macworld,” said Chuck Jones, an analyst with Atlantic Trust Private Wealth Management in San Francisco, which owns Apple’s shares. “Him not being there is a concern.”

During recent product introductions, Jobs has increasingly turned over the stage to his lieutenants. In October, when Apple unveiled new MacBook notebooks, he shared the podium with Chief Operating Officer Timothy Cook, considered the No. 2 executive at Apple, and chief product designer Jonathan Ive.

While Apple hasn’t announced a succession plan, Jobs told shareholders in March that if he were to leave for any reason, the board could choose his replacement from Apple’s current management team. Possible candidates include Cook, who filled in for jobs when the CEO took a month’s leave to recuperate from his cancer surgery; Schiller, who has worked on Apple’s product marketing since 1997; Chief Financial Officer Peter Oppenheimer; and Ron Johnson, who leads Apple’s retail team.

Succession Plan

Some investors want a clearer succession plan for Jobs.

“It’s past time for Apple to disclose the state of his health or elaborate a viable plan for eventually transferring power,” Yair Reiner, an analyst at Oppenheimer & Co., said in a note today. He lowered his rating on Apple shares to “perform.” “Until such time, we can no longer continue to recommend Apple as a long-term investment.”

While Jobs’s health may be a reason for the Macworld pullout, the real reason may be because Apple doesn’t have any compelling new products to announce, said Hakim Kriout, a portfolio manager at Grigsby & Associates, a New York-based securities trading firm that owns Apple shares.

“I am worried by the apparent loss of momentum in the announcement of exciting and impressive new products,” Kriout said. “They may be pacing themselves, but history shows every successful company eventually reaches this innovation plateau.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Connie Guglielmo in San Francisco at cguglielmo1@bloomberg.net; Ian King in San Francisco at ianking@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: December 17, 2008 16:24 EST

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