March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Automobile sales in the U.S. probably fell for a fifth straight month in March amid a drop in demand for luxury vehicles such as Honda Motor Co.'s Acura and General Motors Corp.'s Saab.

Orders for premium brands declined by at least 10 percent, estimated Jesse Toprak, an Edmunds.com analyst in Santa Monica, California. Overall sales for GM, Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC probably slid by at least 5.5 percent from a year earlier, according to the average estimate of nine analysts in a Bloomberg survey.

Sales by automakers' luxury divisions -- broadly defined by analysts as those selling autos for $40,000 aimed at the most- affluent consumers -- were down 12 percent in February from a year earlier as the impact of the credit crunch and declining home prices spread.

``It's largely a myth that the luxury market holds up better throughout the economic cycle than the rest of the market,'' said George Pipas, chief sales analyst at Dearborn, Michigan-based Ford. ``Ask the guys on Wall Street if their bonuses are as big as they were in years past.''

Ford's Lincoln, Volvo, Jaguar and Land Rover brands are among 13 luxury marques that recorded sales shortfalls in the first two months of the year.

The analysts' estimates for the month account for two fewer selling days than in March 2007. Bloomberg and some automakers use unadjusted percentage comparisons, which would be about 8 percentage points lower than the analysts'.

Lowest Since 2005

The industry's annualized sales rate probably fell to 15.1 million cars and light trucks in March, which would be the lowest since October 2005, based on a survey of 19 analysts and economists. That compares with 16.3 million a year earlier.

Automakers release March results tomorrow.

U.S. auto sales fell 5.4 percent in January and February, and may drop to their lowest total since 1998 this year after a 2.5 percent tumble in 2007.

The average estimate among the analysts surveyed by Bloomberg is for a 12 percent decline this month at Chrysler, 9.7 percent at Ford and 5.5 percent at GM.

Among the biggest Japanese automakers, Toyota Motor Corp.'s sales may have dropped 5 percent and Nissan Motor Co.'s 2 percent, while Honda's may have risen 4 percent, New York-based Deutsche Bank analyst Rod Lache said

Luxury brands account for about one in 10 auto sales in the U.S. Of 18 luxury brands, only five -- GM's Cadillac, Nissan's Infiniti, Fiat SpA's Maserati, Daimler AG's Mercedes-Benz and Bayerische Motoren Werke AG's Rolls Royce -- posted higher sales in January and February.

Entry Level

Sales of so-called entry-level luxury cars, such as Acura's TSX and BMW's 128i that start around $30,000, helped fuel the upscale segment's growth. Since 1990, sales of the top 12 luxury brands grew 79 percent in the U.S. to about 1.8 million units annually.

Now consumers are reluctant to stretch their budgets to pay for a lower-priced Saab or Mercedes, said Chris Hopson, an analyst with Global Insight Inc. of Lexington, Massachusetts.

``Those people are being smarter with their money, or they simply can't afford it, because of the economy and housing market.''

Also, some luxury-vehicle owners are holding on to their autos longer, waiting for the economy to improve, said Toprak of Edmunds.com, an auto marketing Web site.

Trucks Fall

The slip in luxury-car sales comes amid a slide in sales of vans, pickup trucks and sport-utility vehicles, also some of the industry's most profitable products. Sales of these light trucks, as they are categorized by the industry, were down 8.5 percent in January and February.

Housing starts, considered a crucial indicator of truck sales, fell 6 percent in February from January. Consumer sentiment fell to its lowest in 16 years on declining home prices and average gasoline prices hovering around $3.25 a gallon.

Chrysler, based in Auburn Hills, Michigan, will probably post a 13 percent decline after truck sales, which account for about three-quarters of its U.S. deliveries, fell 17 percent, said Chicago-based Lehman Brothers analyst Brian Johnson in a March 27 note. Declining sales of such vehicles as the Dodge Ram pickup reflect ``the company's aging large truck lineup.''

GM: `Weak'

GM probably will report 5 percent fewer sales this month compared with a year earlier because of a ``very weak performance in full-size pickups and SUVs'' such as the GMC Sierra, said New York-based Goldman Sachs analyst Patrick Archambault in a March 28 note.

The Detroit-based automaker probably will say sales of its Cadillac CTS and Chevy Malibu sedans improved this month, he said.

Ford probably won't post an increase for March, Pipas said in an interview, without giving details. The automaker likely increased sales of its crossover sport-utility vehicles, such as the Ford Edge, he said.

Last week, Ford announced plans to sell its Jaguar and Land Rover divisions for $2.3 billion to India's Tata Motors Ltd. Ford lost $15.3 billion in the last two years, most of it in North America.

Ford shares rose 13 cents to $5.72 at 4 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading and have declined 15 percent this year. GM gained 38 cents to $19.05 and has dropped 23 percent this year. Toyota's American depositary receipts fell $2.90 to $100.89; they are down 5 percent since Dec. 31.

Bonds, Swaps

GM's 8.375 percent note due July 2033 slipped 0.25 cent to 71.25 cents on the dollar, yielding 12.02 percent, according to Trace, the NASD's bond-price reporting service. Ford's 7.45 percent note due July 2031 declined 0.63 cent to 66.13 cents on the dollar, yielding 11.71 percent.

Credit-default swaps on GM debt increased 65 basis points to 1164 basis points, according to CMA Datavision in London. Ford's rose 70 basis points to 1227 basis points.

The contracts are designed to protect bondholders against default. A rise in the price indicates a decline in the perception of a company's credit quality.

The following table provides estimates for car and light- truck sales in the U.S. Estimates for companies are percentage changes from March 2007. Forecasts for the seasonally adjusted annual rate, or SAAR, are in millions of vehicles.

The SAAR average is based on forecasts from nine analysts and a survey of 10 economists. The analysts' estimates are based on daily selling rates. March had 26 selling days, two fewer than March 2007.

Analyst                   GM     Ford     Chrysler    SAAR

Peter Nesvold            -6%     -14%      -10%       15.1
 (Bear Stearns)
Richard Kwas             -5%     -10%       -9%       15.0
 (Wachovia)
Jesse Toprak           -8.6%    -8.6%    -11.4%       N/A
 (Edmunds.com)
Rod Lache               0.0%     -13%      -13%       15.1
 (Deutsche Bank)
Patrick Archambault      -5%     -10%      -17%       14.9
 (Goldman Sachs)
Himanshu Patel           -3%      -9%       -8%       15.2
 (JP Morgan)
Itay Michaeli            -8%      -6%      -12%       15.0
 (Citigroup)
Chris Ceraso             -6%*     -7%*     -10%*      15.2*
 (Credit Suisse)
Brian Johnson            -8%     -10%      -13%       14.9
 (Lehman Brothers)
Chris Hopson             N/A      N/A       N/A       14.9
 (Global Insight)

Bloomberg Economists     N/A      N/A       N/A       15.4
(average estimate)

AVERAGE:               -5.5%    -9.7%    -11.5%       15.1

*Estimate presented as a range. Figure shown here is an average
of the range, rounded to the nearest tenth where appropriate.

To contact the reporter on this story: Greg Bensinger in New York at gbensinger1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: March 31, 2008 16:30 EDT