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U.S. Economy: Trade Gap Narrows, Smallest Since 2005 (Update1)

By Courtney Schlisserman

Jan. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly shrank in November to the smallest since July 2005 as accelerating global economic growth and a weaker dollar pushed exports to a record.

The gap between imports and exports fell 1 percent to $58.2 billion in November, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Crude oil imports declined, partly reflecting warmer winter weather, and the trade shortfall with China retreated from an all-time high.

Overseas demand for U.S.-made planes, cars and telecommunications equipment increased after last year's slide in the value of the dollar made American goods cheaper. A narrower deficit will probably add to the U.S. economic expansion, softening the impact of slowdowns in housing and manufacturing.

``The trade deficit has peaked and is becoming a positive contributor to growth,'' said Nigel Gault, director of U.S. research at Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts. ``Trade will be a very strong plus for growth in the fourth quarter.''

Inventories at U.S. wholesalers piled up in November at the fastest pace in three months, exceeding an increase in sales, the Commerce Department said in a separate report. The 1.3 percent November inventory gain came as sales rose 1 percent, bringing the amount of goods on hand relative to purchases to the highest since June 2005.

Economists had expected the trade deficit to widen to $60 billion from October's $58.8 billion, according to the median of forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. The government previously estimated the October gap at $58.9 billion.

`Cruising Speed'

The U.S. economy is at a ``pretty good cruising speed currently,'' Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said today in an interview. He said he expects growth to pick up from the third quarter's 2 percent annual rate and that ``the economy is doing quite well.''

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg have raised their forecast for growth the last three months of last year, based on increased consumer spending and a smaller trade deficit. The economy grew at an annual pace of 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News from Jan. 2 to Jan. 8, compared with a 2 percent estimate in November.

Used In GDP

Adjusted for changes in prices, figures the government uses in its calculation of gross domestic product, the U.S. trade gap in November held at $55.2 billion for a second month.

Exports rose 0.9 percent to $124.8 billion.

``Strong global growth is part of the reason why export growth has completely outpaced import growth this year,'' said Elisabeth Denison, an economist at Dresdner Kleinwort in New York.

A decline in the dollar, which makes U.S.-made goods cheaper abroad, may be contributing to the rebound in exports. The dollar last year fell 3.8 percent against a trade-weighted basket of the currencies of its biggest trading partners.

The U.S. currency advanced against the euro to $1.2938 at 4:01 p.m. today, from $1.3001 late yesterday.

Asian Economies

Stronger economic growth in Asia is also fueling demand. Nike Inc., the world's biggest athletic-shoe maker, said Dec. 20 that revenue in Asia rose 15 percent in the fiscal second quarter.

``In Asia-Pacific, the consumer continues to respond to the brand across the region,'' Nike Chief Executive Officer Mark Parker said on a conference call. Global orders of shoes and clothing for delivery between December and April, a measure of future sales, rose 7 percent.

Total imports of goods and services rose 0.3 percent in November to $183 billion. Imports of consumer goods rose to $39.1 million from $38.2 billion, reflecting increased demand for toys, televisions and clothing.

November imports were restrained by a drop in demand for petroleum. Oil imports declined to $21.5 billion, the lowest since July 2005.

Crude oil prices are likely to cause fluctuations in the trade figures over the next couple of months. The average price per barrel of crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.09 in December, from $59.40 the month before. The price dropped to $53.50 today, the lowest close since June 2005.

High Inventories

Slower U.S. growth and a need to trim inventories are likely to limit total imports in coming months, keeping the trade deficit in check, said Jonathan Basile, an economist at Credit Suisse Holdings in New York. Bloated stockpiles will also probably limit orders to U.S. factories, keeping manufacturing here weak, economists said.

The gap with China narrowed to $22.9 from $24.4 billion in October. In the first 11 months of 2006 the deficit with China surged to $213.5 billion, representing almost 30 percent of the total U.S. shortfall, from $185.3 billion in the same time a year earlier. U.S. congressional leaders and manufacturers have criticized China for keeping its currency, the yuan, undervalued to promote sales overseas.

Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China, said this week the country may increase the flexibility of the yuan should its trade surplus continue to expand this year. China's trade surplus swelled 74 percent to a record $177.5 billion last year, the official Xinhua News Agency said today.

Paulson, China

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson last month declined to brand China a currency manipulator, concluding in the department's semiannual foreign-exchange report that the nation is taking steps to make the yuan more flexible. The decision provoked criticism that the administration wasn't being tough enough in negotiations with China.

The trade gap with Japan narrowed to $7.9 billion, from $8.3 billion in October. Year-to-date, it is $81 billion.

The trade deficit with the European Union held at $9.5 billion. The gap with Canada, the U.S.'s biggest trading partner, narrowed to $5.4 billion, from $5.5 billion. The deficit with Mexico widened.

Exports to South and Central America reached records in November.

To contact the reporters on this story: Courtney Schlisserman in Washington at cschlisserma@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: January 10, 2007 16:44 EST

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