By Ken Fireman and William Roberts
Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The independent commission studying U.S. policy in Iraq has reached unanimous agreement on a report to be released next week and plans to tour the country promoting its conclusions, according to a person familiar with its deliberations.
The Iraq Study Group's recommendations -- which are likely to include involving Iran and Syria in diplomatic efforts to quell the conflict while stopping short of setting a timetable for U.S. withdrawal -- probably won't please either President George W. Bush's administration or anti-war Democrats, said the person, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
The commission, headed by former Secretary of State James A. Baker III, 76, and former Representative Lee Hamilton, 75, has met periodically during its deliberations with prominent figures from both major parties. They include former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and former President Bill Clinton, both of whom are likely to endorse the group's report, the person said.
The commission announced yesterday it will release its report on Dec. 6. The recommendations come as Bush faces mounting pressure to change course in Iraq after an upsurge of violence there and Republican losses earlier this month in U.S. midterm elections.
Benchmarks for Exit
While the panel's report isn't likely to fix a date for an American pullout from Iraq, it probably will set benchmarks for ending U.S. involvement, the person said.
The New York Times, citing people familiar with the panel's deliberations, reported that the commission will call for a gradual pullback of the 15 American combat brigades now in Iraq and won't set a firm timetable for their withdrawal. The panel will recommend that Bush make clear he intends to start the withdrawal relatively soon, as a way of pressuring Iraqi leaders to reach a political settlement, the newspaper reported.
The 10-member bipartisan panel has wrapped up three days of meetings in Washington to review U.S. strategic options in Iraq, said Lauren Sucher, a spokeswoman for the U.S. Institute of Peace, which provides support to the study. They will issue their report after briefing members of Congress and Bush, Sucher said.
Another spokesman for the institute, Ian Larsen, said he couldn't comment on the report's conclusions. ``I can't give you one way or the other on any of that,'' Larsen said.
Hamilton told a forum at the Center for American Progress in Washington that the panel ``reached a consensus,'' according to the Associated Press. He didn't say what conclusions the panel's members had accepted.
One of the Iraq Study Group's most difficult tasks was achieving unanimity, because members held such strong views, said the person familiar with the deliberations.
A Public Role
The decision to have panel members fan out across the country to sell their recommendations in public recalls the strategy employed by a commission that investigated the Sept. 11 attacks. Hamilton, a Democrat, was the vice chairman of the Sept. 11 panel.
The Iraq panel has received conflicting advice on the question of whether the U.S. should seek the cooperation of Iranian and Syrian leaders. United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan told the panel by video link this week that the U.S. should reach out to those countries for help in Iraq.
``The two countries have a role to play; they should become part of the solution,'' Annan told reporters at the UN. ``We should bring them in and get them to work with us in resolving the issue and assume some of the responsibility.''
Skepticism on Talks
Clifford May, a Republican foreign-policy analyst who has advised the panel, expressed skepticism about that approach. ``To go hat in hand to them after they have been aiding and abetting the killing of Americans seems to me to be pretty desperate,'' May said in an interview.
Bush is under no obligation to accept the commission's recommendations, said May, who is president of the Washington- based Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a former spokesman for the Republican National Committee.
``He is still the president,'' May said. ``This is an advisory group. This is not something written in stone, handed down from Mount Sinai.''
Security Push
Bush said he and Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki talked today in Amman, Jordan, ``about accelerating authority to the prime minister so he can do what the Iraqi people expect him to do, and that is bring security to parts of this country that require firm action.''
Maliki later said his government will step up training of its police and army so that ``by next June our forces will be ready.''
In remarks this week, Bush said Iraq should hold talks with its neighbors to pursue stability. He said Iran and Syria should help Iraq's ``young democracy.''
In an interview today, President Jimmy Carter said in addition to the gradual withdrawal of U.S. forces, there should be an international conference involving Iraq's neighbors, including Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and Iran. The conference would assure Iraqis of help in rebuilding their public services, schools and oil industry, he said.
``I think that would be a great way without immediate action to let the Iraqi people know that peace is better for them than continued internecine warfare,'' Carter said on Bloomberg Radio.
Iraq is strengthening ties with its neighbors, and resumed diplomatic relations with Syria last week after a gap of more than 20 years. Iraqi President Jalal Talabani traveled to Tehran this week to confer with Iranian leaders.
Syrian Role
Syria's ambassador to the U.S., Imad Moustapha, said the message from his government in meetings with the Iraq Study Group was the U.S. should announce a commitment to withdraw from Iraq. He said in an interview earlier this month that Syria can help restore stability in Iraq because it has ties to two of the warring parties: Sunni Muslims and anti-American Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.
Iraq Study Group members include former Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor, former Senators Chuck Robb and Alan Simpson, former Defense Secretary William Perry, former Attorney General Edwin Meese, investment banker and Clinton adviser Vernon Jordan and former Clinton White House chief of staff Leon Panetta.
Former Central Intelligence Agency Director Robert Gates, initially on the panel, was replaced by former Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger after Bush nominated Gates to be defense secretary.
To contact the reporters on this story: Ken Fireman at kfireman1@bloomberg.net; William Roberts in Washington at wroberts@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: November 30, 2006 16:30 EST
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