By William Roberts
Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- To Democratic and Republican activists, state ballot initiatives are vote magnets that can boost election turnout and help a party's candidates.
Republicans, convinced that initiatives were a key to their success in 2004, are trying to appeal to traditional-minded voters in eight states with proposals that would ban same-sex marriage. Democrats in six states are pushing measures to raise the minimum wage, an issue that could draw more minorities and blue-collar workers to the polls on Nov. 7.
While party strategists see voter initiatives -- billed as the ultimate expression of participatory democracy -- as a form of electoral engineering, some experts say the exercise may be of reduced value this year. That's because Democrats have transformed the midterm elections into a national referendum on President George W. Bush, the Iraq war and national security, concerns that energize large blocs of voters and dwarf parochial concerns.
``My sense is this year that, on either side, these are not necessarily as mobilizing tools as they were in the past,'' said Curtis Gans, director of the Center for the Study on the American Electorate at American University in Washington. ``This is in many ways like 1994, 1974 and 1966, a referendum on presidential leadership.''
Many Republicans remain convinced that hot-button ballot questions, such as Ohio's 2004 vote against gay marriage, can tip the balance in a battleground. In the Buckeye State, a measure to ban same-sex marriages was backed by White House political adviser Karl Rove in the belief that it would mobilize church- going voters.
Rural Support
On Election Day '04, Democratic nominee John Kerry ran ahead of 2000 party candidate Al Gore in Ohio's cities, yet Bush carried the state by upping his support in rural areas.
Not all Republican strategists are convinced that the gay- marriage ban was the catalyst. ``I've yet to get any data from Ohio that shows it actually turned out voters,'' said White House ally Grover Norquist, 60, president of Americans for Tax Reform, a Washington-based organization that promotes tax cuts.
Though there are questions about the efficacy of initiatives as a mobilizing strategy in an election turning on national issues, Republicans and Democrats alike are adding them to state ballots. This year, there are 204 referendums before voters in 37 states.
In addition to gay marriage and the minimum wage, a proposal to encourage stem-cell research is being debated in Missouri; alternative energy development will get a vote in California; and Arizonans can chose among four separate measures to curb illegal immigration.
Colorado Choices
In Colorado, voters can select a measure that defines traditional marriage as between a man and woman -- or opt for another that grants legal protections to gay couples who join in civil unions.
The drive to put minimum-wage initiatives on state ballots was launched by labor and anti-poverty activists who were frustrated by the Republican-controlled Congress's failure to raise the federal rate. Democrats are convinced that their backing of the state initiatives will appeal to working families.
In Missouri, Democrat Claire McCaskill, who is seeking the Senate seat held by Republican Jim Talent, is running hard on the minimum-wage initiative and contrasting her backing with what she calls her opponent's sympathy for business interests.
The minimum-wage debate ``cuts in favor of Democrats,'' said Steve Nicholson, a political scientist at the University of California at Merced. ``It is popular with the majority of people, in particular moderate and independent-type voters.''
McCaskill's supporters say that she has another advantage in a separate initiative, a proposal to permit stem cell research that is legal under federal law to be conducted in Missouri. Democrat McCaskill backs the measure; Talent and pro-life groups such as Colorado Springs-based Focus on the Family oppose it.
Tennessee Initiative
Republicans' big guns are trained on gay marriage this year, with proposals to outlaw the practice on eight state ballots. In Tennessee, Democrat Harold Ford Jr. and Republican Bob Corker are in a tight battle to win the Senate seat of retiring Republican Majority Leader Bill Frist. A measure to ban gay marriage is on the ballot and, as in most states where it is before voters, is likely to pass.
While both Ford and Corker say they disapprove of gay marriage and support the Tennessee initiative, the Republican National Committee has run television ads that claim Ford actually supports same-sex marriage. They cite his 2004 vote against a House measure that would have barred the federal courts from reviewing a 1996 law allowing states to refuse to recognize same-sex marriage licenses issued in other states.
Traditional-values activists say that dismay over a recent New Jersey Supreme Court decision to grant legal rights to gay couples will benefit Republican candidates across the board. Gay- marriage bans have become ``a very hot issue,'' said Gary Bauer, president of American Values, an Arlington, Virginia-based group that backs traditional social institutions. ``It will spur higher voter turnout in certainly those states'' that have initiatives on the ballot, he said.
California Proposals
Voters in California will have a chance to take sides on a measure that would promote renewable energy. Proposition 87 would impose a tax on oil extracted in the state to create a $4 billion fund for developing clean-energy technologies.
The initiative is backed by Californians for Clean Alternative Energy, a citizens group. The oil industry has spent more than $100 million on ads urging the measure's defeat, according to the Initiative and Referendum Institute at the University of Southern California Law School in Los Angeles. Environmentalists reckon that the proposition can spur the green vote, though its future is in doubt.
One area where populist anger appears to have ebbed, at least for the Republicans, is state tax-limitation limits and spending caps. Although the national tax revolt first manifested itself in California in 1978 with Proposition 13, relatively few such measures confront state voters in 2006.
The names of some groups pushing proposals may not pass a truth-in-advertising test. An Ohio group called Smoke Less Ohio has proposed an initiative that, despite the organization's name, would actually block efforts to ban smoking in bars.
To contact the reporter on this story: William Roberts in Washington wroberts@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: October 31, 2006 00:06 EST
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