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IEA to Cut Global Oil Forecast on Slower U.S. Economy (Update1)

By Daniel Whitten and Christian Schmollinger

Feb. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The International Energy Agency will cut its forecast for global oil demand this year because slower economic growth in the U.S. will curb consumption.

The energy adviser to 27 oil-consuming nations will revise its outlook ``slightly downward,'' Nobuo Tanaka, executive director, said in Houston yesterday. The agency is due to release its forecast later today. The IEA on Jan. 16 cut its first-quarter demand estimate by 100,000 barrels a day because of a mild U.S. winter.

The Group of Seven industrial nations ended their Feb. 10 meeting in Tokyo saying that ``downside risks persist'' globally, including a U.S. housing slump and tighter credit conditions. Oil has fallen 7 percent from a record $100.09 a barrel on Jan. 3 on concern that slower growth in the U.S., the world's biggest energy user, may limit demand for fuels.

``We are watching carefully the U.S. economy and watching how other international organizations see the situation,'' Tanaka told reporters at the Cambridge Energy Research Associates conference. The ``downward trend is a major reason for this.''

The IEA on Jan. 16 forecast 88.2 million barrels a day of consumption in the first quarter. World demand will rise 2 million barrels this year to average 87.8 million barrels a day for all of 2008, it said.

``Since the projection was an absurdly high 2 million barrels per day for 2008, it's not surprising that they are reducing their projection,'' Edward Morse, chief energy economist for Lehman Brothers, said of the IEA's January estimate. ``If they reduce it by 200,000 or 300,000 barrels per day, it will still be at the upward end of most projections.''

Crude oil for March delivery fell as much as 41 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $92.37 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It traded $92.38 a barrel at 1:40 p.m. in Singapore.

To contact the reporters on this story: Daniel Whitten in Washington at dwhitten2@bloomberg.net; Christian Schmollinger in Singapore at christian.s@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: February 13, 2008 01:12 EST

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