Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC, the producer of more than 40 percent of the world's oil, may reject U.S. President George W. Bush's request to increase production and relieve the strain of rising energy costs.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will keep its output target unchanged at 29.67 million barrels a day when it meets in Vienna on Feb. 1, according to 29 of 32 analysts surveyed between Jan. 24 and 28 by Bloomberg News. Ministers from Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq said last week that more oil isn't needed. Bush asked producers to pump more crude during a visit to Saudi Arabia on Jan. 15.

Oil fell 5.4 percent this month to $90.82 a barrel, and the 13-nation group wants to prevent a further decline, the analysts said. A slowdown in the U.S., the world's biggest energy consumer, risks curbing demand for fuel as the end of winter in the Northern Hemisphere reduces consumption.

``OPEC would be shooting themselves in the foot if they increased supply,'' Michael Davies, head of research at Sucden (U.K.) Ltd. in London, said in an interview. ``China and India, the drivers of demand growth, won't be immune to a U.S. slowdown.''

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Merrill Lynch & Co. predict deteriorating growth in the U.S. will spread to other nations. Japan, the world's third-largest oil consumer, has probably entered a recession already, Goldman's chief Japan economist, Tetsufumi Yamakawa, said yesterday in a report.

The U.S. dollar, used by OPEC to price oil sales, weakened 12 percent against the euro during the past year, eroding OPEC's purchasing power. Oil reached a record $100.09 a barrel on Jan. 3 in New York.

Don't Need More

``The supply is enough,'' Galo Chiriboga, the energy minister for Ecuador, OPEC's newest member, said in a telephone interview from Vienna today. ``We don't think there are much changes to do.''

There's ``no need for additional barrels,'' Hossein Kazempour Ardebili, the OPEC governor for Iran, OPEC's second-largest producer, said in a telephone interview yesterday from Tehran.

Oil ministers from Qatar and the U.A.E. said Jan. 24 in Davos, Switzerland, that the market is ``well balanced.'' ``I don't see the need for more'' OPEC oil, Qatar's Abdullah bin Hamad al- Attiyah, said in an interview.

Bush said during his Middle East tour this month that more oil from the group would be a ``help.'' OPEC rejected a similar request from U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman when it kept production unchanged on Dec. 5 as prices closed in on $100 a barrel.

Strategists Surprised

Analysts failed to forecast OPEC moves in the past. The group's last decision to boost output, on Sept. 11, surprised all 23 strategists surveyed before the gathering. In this month's poll, contrarians include two analysts that predicted an increase of between 250,000 and 500,000 barrels a day.

``There's a 60 percent chance they'll increase production as the U.S. is putting pressure on Saudi Arabia,'' Hannes Loacker, an analyst at Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterriech in Vienna, said in an interview. ``If OPEC does increase, prices could come down into the $80s.''

Johannes Benigni, managing director of PVM Oil Associates in Vienna, said he expects OPEC to lower oil production when it meets at a subsequent scheduled meeting on March 5 as stockpiles mount.

``OPEC is happy with the price above $80, and they clearly want to stop it going below $80,'' he said in an interview.

Oil use typically wanes as temperatures warm in Japan, Europe and the U.S., reducing the need for heating fuels. OPEC forecasts demand for its oil will decline by 1.45 million barrels a day in the second quarter because of seasonal refinery maintenance and shutdowns.

The group hasn't announced an output increase in January or February since 2003, when members had to make up for production lost during a strike in Venezuela.

Raise When Justified

Saudi Arabia, OPEC's biggest and most influential producer, hasn't yet stated its preference for this week's meeting.

``We will raise production when the market justifies it,'' Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi told reporters on Jan. 15.

``Global oil demand forecasts may slip as the effects of the financial crisis are reflected in consumer spending and commercial oil use,'' Deutsche Bank AG's New York-based chief energy economist, Adam Sieminski, said in a Jan. 25 report.

For the past decade, OPEC has exercised more caution after raising quotas at a meeting in Jakarta in November 1997, just before Asian economies faltered, analysts said. A combination of increased supply and falling demand sent prices tumbling to $10 a barrel the following year.

``They will not make the same mistake they made in 1998, when they put more oil on the market just ahead of the Asian financial meltdown,'' said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut.

To contact the reporter on this story: Grant Smith in London at gsmith52@bloomberg.netMark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: January 29, 2008 11:14 EST