Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s broadest indicator of economic health rose for a sixth month in September as government measures at home and abroad spurred a recovery in exports and production.

The coincident index, a composite of 11 indicators including factory output and retail sales, climbed to 92.5 from 91.2, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo, matching the median estimate of 10 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Some $2.2 trillion in stimulus worldwide helped Japan’s exports and output recover from their unprecedented collapse marked earlier this year. While growth in Asia is sustaining shipments abroad, the domestic consumer, whose purchases make up more than half of the economy, may pare back once the effects of emergency measures fade.

“Since the economy bottomed in March, it has been gradually and steadily recovering,” said Yoshiki Shinke, a senior economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo. “Consumer spending has also been better than expected, but we can’t be too optimistic about the outlook” because wages are declining, he said.

The Cabinet Office said the coincident index is reaching a “turning point,” raising its assessment of the measure for the first time since May. The three-month moving-average of the index, which the government uses to make that assessment, rose to 91.2 in September, today’s report showed.

Honda Motor Co. is among manufacturers that have benefited from improvements in trade. The country’s second-largest carmaker almost tripled its full-year profit forecast as government incentives boosted demand in China and Japan.

Output Increases

Exports fell at the slowest pace in 10 months in September, with shipments to China, Japan’s biggest market, dropping at half the pace of the previous month. Industrial production rose for a seventh month as a pickup in sales depleted stockpiles, and companies said they planned to increase output for October and November as well.

“Emerging economies in Asia are recovering with remarkable strength,” said Hiroshi Shiraishi, an economist at BNP Paribas in Tokyo. “In terms of production, the momentum has continued.”

The brighter spots in manufacturing have spread to consumers, whose sentiment rose to a 23-month high in September. Household spending climbed 1 percent in the month.

Gross domestic product probably rose 2.8 percent last quarter, according to the median estimate of 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg last month. The report from the Cabinet Office is due Nov. 16.

The economy expanded for the first time in more than a year in the previous quarter as households took advantage of incentives to purchase home electronics and cars.

The leading index, a gauge of economic conditions in three to six months, rose to 86.4 from 83.2, today’s report showed.

To contact the reporter on this story: Aki Ito in Tokyo at aito16@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: November 6, 2009 00:36 EST